Oregon Population Forecast Program

.title[
# Oregon Population Forecast Program
]
.subtitle[
## Preliminary Forecasts for Counties & UGBs
]
.author[
### Coos County
]
.institute[
### Portland State University Population Research Center
]
.date[
### December 2025
]

---

# Comments or Questions?

## Contact PSUPRC
Email: [askprc@pdx.edu](mailto:askprc@pdx.edu)  
Telephone: 503-725-3922

## Preliminary Population Projections
https://www.pdx.edu/population-research/population-forecasts

---

# PSUPRC Project Team

**Joshua Wilde**  
*Research Scientist*

**Gilbert Montcho**  
*Demographic and Labor Economics Analyst*

]

**Huda Alkitkat**  
*Population Estimates Project Manager*

**David Swanson**  
*Research Associate*

**Suniva Thangaraj**  
*Program Manager*
]

---

# Coos County Outline

- Population Overview
- Total Population
- Births
- Deaths
- Migration
- Aging
- Race & Ethnicity
- UGB Forecasts

---

# Coos at a Glance: 2020 Census

.pulll-right {
 float: right;
 width: 68%;
 }
</style>

.pux-right {
 float: right;
 width: 58%;
 }
</style>

<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Statistic </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Coos </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Oregon </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Total Population </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 64,929 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 4,237,256 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Population Aged 0-17 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 18.02% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 20.20% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Population Aged 65+ </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 26.78% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 18.25% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Population non-White </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 11.54% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 23.41% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons per Household </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.30 (31,378 units) </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.48 (1,813,747 units) </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>

---

# Coos Employment Changes

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Financial activities Sector Jobs: 679","Year: 1998 County: Coos Industry: Financial activities Sector Jobs: 708","Year: 2003 County: Coos Industry: Financial activities Sector Jobs: 741","Year: 2008 County: Coos Industry: Financial activities Sector Jobs: 768","Year: 2013 County: Coos Industry: Financial activities Sector Jobs: 668","Year: 2018 County: Coos Industry: Financial activities Sector Jobs: 672","Year: 2023 County: Coos Industry: Financial activities Sector Jobs: 700"],"type":"bar","textposition":"none","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(174,162,0,1)","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"transparent"}},"name":"Financial activities","legendgroup":"Financial 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5,474"],"type":"bar","textposition":"none","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(100,178,0,1)","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"transparent"}},"name":"Government","legendgroup":"Government","showlegend":true,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"orientation":"v","width":[0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177],"base":[0,0,0,0,0,0,0],"x":[1992.590909090909,1997.590909090909,2002.590909090909,2007.590909090909,2012.590909090909,2017.590909090909,2022.590909090909],"y":[371,338,301,253,186,173,144],"text":["Year: 1993 County: Coos Industry: Information Sector Jobs: 371","Year: 1998 County: Coos Industry: Information Sector Jobs: 338","Year: 2003 County: Coos Industry: Information Sector Jobs: 301","Year: 2008 County: Coos Industry: Information Sector Jobs: 253","Year: 2013 County: Coos Industry: Information Sector Jobs: 186","Year: 2018 County: Coos Industry: Information Sector Jobs: 173","Year: 2023 County: Coos Industry: Information Sector Jobs: 144"],"type":"bar","textposition":"none","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(0,189,92,1)","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"transparent"}},"name":"Information","legendgroup":"Information","showlegend":true,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"orientation":"v","width":[0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177],"base":[0,0,0,0,0,0,0],"x":[1993,1998,2003,2008,2013,2018,2023],"y":[2070,2384,2296,2521,2353,2704,3042],"text":["Year: 1993 County: Coos Industry: Leisure and hospitality Sector Jobs: 2,070","Year: 1998 County: Coos Industry: Leisure and hospitality Sector Jobs: 2,384","Year: 2003 County: Coos Industry: Leisure and hospitality Sector Jobs: 2,296","Year: 2008 County: Coos Industry: Leisure and hospitality Sector Jobs: 2,521","Year: 2013 County: Coos Industry: Leisure and hospitality Sector Jobs: 2,353","Year: 2018 County: Coos Industry: Leisure and hospitality Sector Jobs: 2,704","Year: 2023 County: Coos Industry: Leisure and hospitality Sector Jobs: 3,042"],"type":"bar","textposition":"none","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(0,193,167,1)","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"transparent"}},"name":"Leisure and hospitality","legendgroup":"Leisure and hospitality","showlegend":true,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"orientation":"v","width":[0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177],"base":[0,0,0,0,0,0,0],"x":[1993.409090909091,1998.409090909091,2003.409090909091,2008.409090909091,2013.409090909091,2018.409090909091,2023.409090909091],"y":[2136,1886,1700,1589,1658,1726,1482],"text":["Year: 1993 County: Coos Industry: Manufacturing Sector Jobs: 2,136","Year: 1998 County: Coos 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---

# Coos Migration Flows

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---

# Coos Population

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---

# Coos Compositional Changes

.pulll-left[
Net migration has been higher than average over the past 10 years while natural change declines.
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---

# Coos Births

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]

---

# Coos Deaths

.pulll-right[
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]

---

# Coos Life Expectancy & TFR

---

# Population Pyramids

.pulll-left[
Coos county modal population age group in 2020 was 65-69, making it one of the older counties in the state. 
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1990 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 75-79 Population: 920","Year: 1990 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 80-84 Population: 555","Year: 1990 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 85+ Population: 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2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Male Age: 75-79 Population: 2,190","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Male Age: 80-84 Population: 1,360","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Male Age: 85+ Population: 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2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Male Age: 75-79 Population: 2,268","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Male Age: 80-84 Population: 1,526","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Male Age: 85+ Population: 1,017"],"type":"bar","textposition":"none","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(165,223,249,1)","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"transparent"}},"name":"Male","legendgroup":"Male","showlegend":false,"xaxis":"x2","yaxis":"y2","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null}],"layout":{"margin":{"t":62.492320464923225,"r":9.2984640929846432,"b":47.422166874221681,"l":69.73848069738483},"plot_bgcolor":"rgba(255,255,255,1)","paper_bgcolor":"rgba(255,255,255,1)","font":{"color":"rgba(0,0,0,1)","family":"","size":18.596928185969286},"title":{"text":" Age 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---

# Coos Race and Ethnicity

.pulll-left[
The NH White population is considerably older than other populations and has been on the decline since 2000.
]

.pulll-right[
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]

---

# Coos UGB Population Changes

---

# Coos UGBs: Bandon in Context

.pux-right[
<img src="Coos_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-15-1.png" width="800px" height="400px" />
]

.pux-left[
<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Metric </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 1980 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2000 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2020 </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Pop 65+ </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 21.20% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 29.37% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 35.44% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Units </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 1,038 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 1,535 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2,077 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Occupancy </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 92.49% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 83.84% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 81.22% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons Per Household </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.37 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.09 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 1.91 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Household Income </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $12,785 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $29,492 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $42,404 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Employment Rate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 88.27% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 92.61% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 86.02% </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]

---

# Coos County: Bandon UGB Boundaries

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---

# Bandon UGB Pop Forecast

---

# Bandon UGB Pop Forecast

---

# Coos UGBs: Coos Bay in Context

.pux-right[
<img src="Coos_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-20-1.png" width="800px" height="400px" />
]

.pux-left[
<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Metric </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 1980 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2000 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2020 </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Pop 65+ </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 11.63% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 19.19% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 24.54% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Units </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 5,933 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 7,094 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 7,611 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Occupancy </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 93.93% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 91.58% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 90.59% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons Per Household </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.55 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.29 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.25 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Household Income </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $15,720 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $31,212 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $53,331 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Employment Rate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 87.21% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 90.75% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 95.23% </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]

---

# Coos County: Coos Bay UGB Boundaries

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---

# Coos Bay UGB Pop Forecast

---

# Coos Bay UGB Pop Forecast

---

# Coos UGBs: Coquille in Context

.pux-right[
<img src="Coos_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-25-1.png" width="800px" height="400px" />
]

.pux-left[
<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Metric </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 1980 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2000 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2020 </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Pop 65+ </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 15.06% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 20.15% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 27.25% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Units </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 1,886 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 1,850 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 1,871 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Occupancy </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 92.84% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 91.14% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 89.85% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons Per Household </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.56 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.35 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.35 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Household Income </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $15,782 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $29,931 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $48,008 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Employment Rate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 84.86% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 89.30% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 94.03% </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]

---

# Coos County: Coquille UGB Boundaries

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---

# Coquille UGB Pop Forecast

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# Coquille UGB Pop Forecast

---

# Coos UGBs: Lakeside in Context

.pux-right[
<img src="Coos_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-30-1.png" width="800px" height="400px" />
]

.pux-left[
<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Metric </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 1980 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2000 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2020 </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Pop 65+ </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 16.24% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 30.05% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 38.29% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Units </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 673 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 764 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 1,068 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Occupancy </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 85.59% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 84.95% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 81.93% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons Per Household </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.52 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.11 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.13 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Household Income </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $12,601 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $25,781 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $60,903 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Employment Rate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 85.47% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 93.64% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 97.37% </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]

---

# Coos County: Lakeside UGB Boundaries

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---

# Lakeside UGB Pop Forecast

---

# Lakeside UGB Pop Forecast

---

# Coos UGBs: Myrtle Point in Context

.pux-right[
<img src="Coos_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-35-1.png" width="800px" height="400px" />
]

.pux-left[
<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Metric </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 1980 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2000 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2020 </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Pop 65+ </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 16.12% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 19.75% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 25.09% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Units </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 1,150 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 1,110 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 1,123 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Occupancy </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 93.91% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 89.01% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 91.36% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons Per Household </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.60 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.43 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.36 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Household Income </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $14,956 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $27,536 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $44,716 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Employment Rate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 93.01% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 90.36% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 89.72% </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]

---

# Coos County: Myrtle Point UGB Boundaries

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# Myrtle Point UGB Pop Forecast

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# Myrtle Point UGB Pop Forecast

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# Coos UGBs: North Bend in Context

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<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Metric </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 1980 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2000 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2020 </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Pop 65+ </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 11.01% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 17.13% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 24.36% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Units </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 3,790 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 4,291 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 4,593 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Occupancy </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 94.17% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 92.50% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 93.49% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons Per Household </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.67 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.35 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.38 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Household Income </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $17,405 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $33,333 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $67,841 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Employment Rate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 93.34% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 94.51% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 92.25% </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]

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# Coos County: North Bend UGB Boundaries

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---

# North Bend UGB Pop Forecast

---

# North Bend UGB Pop Forecast

---

# Coos UGBs: Powers in Context

.pux-right[
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.pux-left[
<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Metric </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 1980 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2000 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2020 </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Pop 65+ </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 14.65% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 21.80% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 29.01% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Units </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 338 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 403 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 382 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Occupancy </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 94.67% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 82.88% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 87.17% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons Per Household </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.56 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.20 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.13 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Household Income </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $12,683 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $21,615 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $37,000 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Employment Rate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 84.73% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 90.95% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 87.12% </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]

---

# Coos County: Powers UGB Boundaries

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# Powers UGB Pop Forecast

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# Powers UGB Pop Forecast

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# Comments or Questions?

## Contact PSUPRC
Email: [askprc@pdx.edu](mailto:askprc@pdx.edu)  
Telephone: 503-725-3922

## Preliminary Population Projections
https://www.pdx.edu/population-research/population-forecasts

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