Oregon Population Forecast Program

.title[
# Oregon Population Forecast Program
]
.subtitle[
## Preliminary Forecasts for Counties & UGBs
]
.author[
### Crook County
]
.institute[
### Portland State University Population Research Center
]
.date[
### December 2025
]

---

# Comments or Questions?

## Contact PSUPRC
Email: [askprc@pdx.edu](mailto:askprc@pdx.edu)  
Telephone: 503-725-3922

## Preliminary Population Projections
https://www.pdx.edu/population-research/population-forecasts

---

# PSUPRC Project Team

**Joshua Wilde**  
*Research Scientist*

**Gilbert Montcho**  
*Demographic and Labor Economics Analyst*

]

**Huda Alkitkat**  
*Population Estimates Project Manager*

**David Swanson**  
*Research Associate*

**Suniva Thangaraj**  
*Program Manager*
]

---

# Crook County Outline

- Population Overview
- Total Population
- Births
- Deaths
- Migration
- Aging
- Race & Ethnicity
- UGB Forecasts

---

# Crook at a Glance: 2020 Census

.pulll-right {
 float: right;
 width: 68%;
 }
</style>

.pux-right {
 float: right;
 width: 58%;
 }
</style>

<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Statistic </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Crook </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Oregon </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Total Population </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 24,738 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 4,237,256 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Population Aged 0-17 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 19.91% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 20.20% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Population Aged 65+ </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 24.94% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 18.25% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Population non-White </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 10.11% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 23.41% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons per Household </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.46 (11,159 units) </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.48 (1,813,747 units) </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>

---

# Crook Employment Changes

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Sector Jobs: 117","Year: 2018 County: Crook Industry: Financial activities Sector Jobs: 160","Year: 2023 County: Crook Industry: Financial activities Sector Jobs: 196"],"type":"bar","textposition":"none","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(174,162,0,1)","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"transparent"}},"name":"Financial activities","legendgroup":"Financial activities","showlegend":true,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"orientation":"v","width":[0.5,0.5,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177],"base":[0,0,0,0,0,0,0],"x":[1992,1997,2002.1818181818182,2007.1818181818182,2012.1818181818182,2017.1818181818182,2022.1818181818182],"y":[1107,1138,1164,1276,1216,1170,1257],"text":["Year: 1993 County: Crook Industry: Government Sector Jobs: 1,107","Year: 1998 County: Crook Industry: Government Sector Jobs: 1,138","Year: 2003 County: Crook Industry: Government Sector Jobs: 1,164","Year: 2008 County: Crook Industry: Government Sector Jobs: 1,276","Year: 2013 County: Crook Industry: Government Sector Jobs: 1,216","Year: 2018 County: Crook Industry: Government Sector Jobs: 1,170","Year: 2023 County: Crook Industry: Government Sector Jobs: 1,257"],"type":"bar","textposition":"none","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(100,178,0,1)","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"transparent"}},"name":"Government","legendgroup":"Government","showlegend":true,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"orientation":"v","width":[0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177],"base":[0,0,0,0,0],"x":[2002.590909090909,2007.590909090909,2012.590909090909,2017.590909090909,2022.590909090909],"y":[26,35,70,191,543],"text":["Year: 2003 County: Crook Industry: Information Sector Jobs: 26","Year: 2008 County: Crook Industry: Information Sector Jobs: 35","Year: 2013 County: Crook Industry: Information Sector Jobs: 70","Year: 2018 County: Crook Industry: Information Sector Jobs: 191","Year: 2023 County: Crook Industry: Information Sector Jobs: 543"],"type":"bar","textposition":"none","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(0,189,92,1)","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"transparent"}},"name":"Information","legendgroup":"Information","showlegend":true,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"orientation":"v","width":[0.5,0.5,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177],"base":[0,0,0,0,0,0,0],"x":[1992.5,1997.5,2003,2008,2013,2018,2023],"y":[338,420,421,630,550,731,811],"text":["Year: 1993 County: Crook Industry: Leisure and hospitality Sector Jobs: 338","Year: 1998 County: Crook Industry: Leisure and hospitality Sector Jobs: 420","Year: 2003 County: Crook Industry: Leisure and hospitality Sector Jobs: 421","Year: 2008 County: Crook Industry: Leisure and hospitality Sector Jobs: 630","Year: 2013 County: Crook Industry: Leisure and hospitality Sector Jobs: 550","Year: 2018 County: Crook Industry: Leisure and hospitality Sector Jobs: 731","Year: 2023 County: Crook Industry: Leisure and hospitality Sector Jobs: 811"],"type":"bar","textposition":"none","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(0,193,167,1)","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"transparent"}},"name":"Leisure and hospitality","legendgroup":"Leisure and hospitality","showlegend":true,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"orientation":"v","width":[0.5,0.5,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177],"base":[0,0,0,0,0,0,0],"x":[1993,1998,2003.409090909091,2008.409090909091,2013.409090909091,2018.409090909091,2023.409090909091],"y":[1647,1375,1122,1072,730,675,746],"text":["Year: 1993 County: Crook Industry: Manufacturing Sector Jobs: 1,647","Year: 1998 County: Crook Industry: Manufacturing Sector Jobs: 1,375","Year: 2003 County: Crook Industry: 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1998 County: Crook Industry: Natural resources and mining Sector Jobs: 270","Year: 2003 County: Crook Industry: Natural resources and mining Sector Jobs: 275","Year: 2008 County: Crook Industry: Natural resources and mining Sector Jobs: 165","Year: 2013 County: Crook Industry: Natural resources and mining Sector Jobs: 222","Year: 2018 County: Crook Industry: Natural resources and mining Sector Jobs: 184","Year: 2023 County: Crook Industry: Natural resources and mining Sector Jobs: 192"],"type":"bar","textposition":"none","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(0,166,255,1)","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"transparent"}},"name":"Natural resources and mining","legendgroup":"Natural resources and 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---

# Crook Migration Flows

<div class="plotly html-widget html-fill-item" id="htmlwidget-0e498aa0f7a8f319065d" style="width:750px;height:500px;"></div>
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---

# Crook Population

.pulll-left[
Crook county is expected to grow, albeit at a rate slower than what has been observed in the past.
]

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---

# Crook Compositional Changes

.pulll-left[
Growth has been sustained by high migration to the county across a broad range of ages.
]

.pulll-right[
<div class="plotly html-widget html-fill-item" id="htmlwidget-085afd9bbaf509ed1ef3" style="width:504px;height:400px;"></div>
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]

---

# Crook Births

.pulll-left[
Births have been slightly increasing in the county but are expected to level off in the coming years.
]

.pulll-right[
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---

# Crook Deaths

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---

# Crook Life Expectancy & TFR

---

# Population Pyramids

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The population aged 65 and over makes up a substantial portion of the county as of 2020.
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---

# Crook Race and Ethnicity

.pulll-right[
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]

---

# Crook UGB Population Changes

---

# Crook UGBs: Prineville in Context

.pux-right[
<img src="Crook_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-15-1.png" width="800px" height="400px" />
]

.pux-left[
<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Metric </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 1980 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2000 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2020 </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Pop 65+ </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 15.60% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 15.50% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 20.87% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Units </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2,293 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 3,022 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 4,579 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Occupancy </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 91.50% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 93.22% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 94.04% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons Per Household </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.46 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.55 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.46 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Household Income </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $13,512 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $30,435 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $63,904 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Employment Rate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 86.19% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 92.39% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 93.57% </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]

---

# Crook County: Prineville UGB Boundaries

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# Prineville UGB Pop Forecast

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# Prineville UGB Pop Forecast

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# Comments or Questions?

## Contact PSUPRC
Email: [askprc@pdx.edu](mailto:askprc@pdx.edu)  
Telephone: 503-725-3922

## Preliminary Population Projections
https://www.pdx.edu/population-research/population-forecasts

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