class: center, middle, inverse, title-slide .title[ # Oregon Population Forecast Program ] .subtitle[ ## Preliminary Forecasts for Counties & UGBs ] .author[ ### Curry County ] .institute[ ### Portland State University Population Research Center ] .date[ ### December 2025 ] --- class: center # Comments or Questions? ## Contact PSUPRC Email: [askprc@pdx.edu](mailto:askprc@pdx.edu) Telephone: 503-725-3922 ## Preliminary Population Projections https://www.pdx.edu/population-research/population-forecasts --- class: center # PSUPRC Project Team .pull-left[ **Neal Marquez** *Population Forecast Project Manager* **Joshua Wilde** *Research Scientist* **Gilbert Montcho** *Demographic and Labor Economics Analyst* ] .pull-right[ **Ethan Sharygin** *Director* **Huda Alkitkat** *Population Estimates Project Manager* **David Swanson** *Research Associate* **Suniva Thangaraj** *Program Manager* ] --- # Curry County Outline - Population Overview - Total Population - Births - Deaths - Migration - Aging - Race & Ethnicity - UGB Forecasts --- # Curry at a Glance: 2020 Census <style type="text/css"> .pulll-left { float: left; width: 20%; } .pulll-right { float: right; width: 68%; } </style> <style type="text/css"> .pux-left { float: left; width: 38%; } .pux-right { float: right; width: 58%; } </style> <style type="text/css"> .city table { font-size: 14px; } </style> <table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:left;"> Statistic </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> Curry </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> Oregon </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Total Population </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 23,446 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 4,237,256 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Population Aged 0-17 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 14.14% </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 20.20% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Population Aged 65+ </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 34.37% </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 18.25% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Population non-White </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 11.53% </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 23.41% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons per Household </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.12 (13,018 units) </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.48 (1,813,747 units) </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> --- # Curry Employment Changes
--- # Curry Migration Flows
--- # Curry Population .pulll-left[ Curry county is expected to grow albeit at a slower pace than previously observed. ] .pulll-right[
] --- # Curry Compositional Changes .pulll-left[ General upward trend of migration, this needs to be sustained in order to maintain growth amid stronger natural decline. ] .pulll-right[
] --- # Curry Births .pulll-left[ Births have been on the decline in the county, a trend that is expected to continue in the coming years. ] .pulll-right[
] --- # Curry Deaths .pulll-left[ Deaths are expected to continue to increase as the population ages, a trend observed across the whole of Oregon. ] .pulll-right[
] --- # Curry Life Expectancy & TFR <img src="Curry_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-11-1.png" width="750px" height="500px" /> --- # Population Pyramids .pulll-left[ The population 65 and over is expected to continue to make up a large portion of the county, sustained by retirement migration. ] .pulll-right[
] --- # Curry Race and Ethnicity .pulll-left[ The population is expected to continue to diversify, continuing a trend observed in the past 35 years. ] .pulll-right[
] --- # Curry UGB Population Changes <img src="Curry_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-14-1.png" width="850px" height="500px" /> --- class: city # Curry UGBs: Brookings in Context .pux-right[ <img src="Curry_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-15-1.png" width="800px" height="400px" /> ] .pux-left[ <table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:left;"> Metric </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> 1980 </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> 2000 </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> 2020 </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Pop 65+ </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 15.72% </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 23.90% </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 26.41% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Units </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 1,412 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2,614 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 3,340 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Occupancy </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 90.51% </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 88.33% </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 88.86% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons Per Household </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.59 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.30 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.23 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Household Income </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> $16,789 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> $31,656 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> $79,109 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Employment Rate </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 91.43% </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 94.22% </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 91.83% </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> ] --- # Curry County: Brookings UGB Boundaries
--- # Brookings UGB Pop Forecast <img src="Curry_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-18-1.png" width="750px" height="500px" /> --- # Brookings UGB Pop Forecast <img src="Curry_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-19-1.png" width="750px" height="500px" /> --- class: city # Curry UGBs: Gold Beach in Context .pux-right[ <img src="Curry_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-20-1.png" width="800px" height="400px" /> ] .pux-left[ <table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:left;"> Metric </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> 1980 </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> 2000 </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> 2020 </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Pop 65+ </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 16.04% </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 18.98% </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 29.56% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Units </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 682 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 987 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 1,304 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Occupancy </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 94.43% </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 83.99% </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 83.44% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons Per Household </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.35 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.19 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.13 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Household Income </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> $15,686 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> $30,243 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> $49,018 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Employment Rate </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 93.39% </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 96.37% </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 90.35% </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> ] --- # Curry County: Gold Beach UGB Boundaries
--- # Gold Beach UGB Pop Forecast <img src="Curry_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-23-1.png" width="750px" height="500px" /> --- # Gold Beach UGB Pop Forecast <img src="Curry_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-24-1.png" width="750px" height="500px" /> --- class: city # Curry UGBs: Port Orford in Context .pux-right[ <img src="Curry_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-25-1.png" width="800px" height="400px" /> ] .pux-left[ <table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:left;"> Metric </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> 1980 </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> 2000 </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> 2020 </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Pop 65+ </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 19.70% </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 27.32% </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 32.55% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Units </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 518 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 662 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 737 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Occupancy </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 89.00% </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 86.25% </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 82.09% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons Per Household </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.30 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.02 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 1.87 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Household Income </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> $9,750 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> $23,289 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> $32,390 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Employment Rate </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 85.32% </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 92.13% </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 86.75% </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> ] --- # Curry County: Port Orford UGB Boundaries
--- # Port Orford UGB Pop Forecast <img src="Curry_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-28-1.png" width="750px" height="500px" /> --- # Port Orford UGB Pop Forecast <img src="Curry_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-29-1.png" width="750px" height="500px" /> --- class: center # Comments or Questions? ## Contact PSUPRC Email: [askprc@pdx.edu](mailto:askprc@pdx.edu) Telephone: 503-725-3922 ## Preliminary Population Projections https://www.pdx.edu/population-research/population-forecasts ---