Oregon Population Forecast Program

.title[
# Oregon Population Forecast Program
]
.subtitle[
## Preliminary Forecasts for Counties & UGBs
]
.author[
### Deschutes County
]
.institute[
### Portland State University Population Research Center
]
.date[
### December 2025
]

---

# Comments or Questions?

## Contact PSUPRC
Email: [askprc@pdx.edu](mailto:askprc@pdx.edu)  
Telephone: 503-725-3922

## Preliminary Population Projections
https://www.pdx.edu/population-research/population-forecasts

---

# PSUPRC Project Team

**Joshua Wilde**  
*Research Scientist*

**Gilbert Montcho**  
*Demographic and Labor Economics Analyst*

]

**Huda Alkitkat**  
*Population Estimates Project Manager*

**David Swanson**  
*Research Associate*

**Suniva Thangaraj**  
*Program Manager*
]

---

# Deschutes County Outline

- Population Overview
- Total Population
- Births
- Deaths
- Migration
- Aging
- Race & Ethnicity
- UGB Forecasts

---

# Deschutes at a Glance: 2020 Census

.pulll-right {
 float: right;
 width: 68%;
 }
</style>

.pux-right {
 float: right;
 width: 58%;
 }
</style>

<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Statistic </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Deschutes </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Oregon </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Total Population </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 198,253 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 4,237,256 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Population Aged 0-17 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 19.54% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 20.20% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Population Aged 65+ </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 20.59% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 18.25% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Population non-White </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 12.23% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 23.41% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons per Household </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.45 (94,110 units) </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.48 (1,813,747 units) </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>

---

# Deschutes Employment Changes

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health services Sector Jobs: 8,977","Year: 2013 County: Deschutes Industry: Education and health services Sector Jobs: 10,333","Year: 2018 County: Deschutes Industry: Education and health services Sector Jobs: 13,479","Year: 2023 County: Deschutes Industry: Education and health services Sector Jobs: 15,951"],"type":"bar","textposition":"none","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(219,142,0,1)","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"transparent"}},"name":"Education and health services","legendgroup":"Education and health 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activities Sector Jobs: 3,560"],"type":"bar","textposition":"none","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(174,162,0,1)","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"transparent"}},"name":"Financial activities","legendgroup":"Financial activities","showlegend":true,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"orientation":"v","width":[0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177],"base":[0,0,0,0,0,0,0],"x":[1992.1818181818182,1997.1818181818182,2002.1818181818182,2007.1818181818182,2012.1818181818182,2017.1818181818182,2022.1818181818182],"y":[5356,6331,7021,8212,8494,9211,10099],"text":["Year: 1993 County: Deschutes Industry: Government Sector Jobs: 5,356","Year: 1998 County: Deschutes Industry: Government Sector Jobs: 6,331","Year: 2003 County: Deschutes Industry: Government Sector Jobs: 7,021","Year: 2008 County: Deschutes Industry: Government Sector Jobs: 8,212","Year: 2013 County: Deschutes Industry: Government Sector Jobs: 8,494","Year: 2018 County: Deschutes Industry: Government Sector Jobs: 9,211","Year: 2023 County: Deschutes Industry: Government Sector Jobs: 10,099"],"type":"bar","textposition":"none","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(100,178,0,1)","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"transparent"}},"name":"Government","legendgroup":"Government","showlegend":true,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"orientation":"v","width":[0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177],"base":[0,0,0,0,0,0,0],"x":[1992.590909090909,1997.590909090909,2002.590909090909,2007.590909090909,2012.590909090909,2017.590909090909,2022.590909090909],"y":[667,921,1542,1615,1406,1863,1713],"text":["Year: 1993 County: Deschutes Industry: Information Sector Jobs: 667","Year: 1998 County: Deschutes Industry: Information Sector Jobs: 921","Year: 2003 County: Deschutes Industry: Information Sector Jobs: 1,542","Year: 2008 County: Deschutes Industry: Information Sector Jobs: 1,615","Year: 2013 County: Deschutes Industry: Information Sector Jobs: 1,406","Year: 2018 County: Deschutes Industry: Information Sector Jobs: 1,863","Year: 2023 County: Deschutes Industry: Information Sector Jobs: 1,713"],"type":"bar","textposition":"none","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(0,189,92,1)","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"transparent"}},"name":"Information","legendgroup":"Information","showlegend":true,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"orientation":"v","width":[0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177],"base":[0,0,0,0,0,0,0],"x":[1993,1998,2003,2008,2013,2018,2023],"y":[5620,6684,7767,9957,9906,12990,14450],"text":["Year: 1993 County: Deschutes Industry: Leisure and hospitality Sector 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Jobs: 613","Year: 2013 County: Deschutes Industry: Natural resources and mining Sector Jobs: 533","Year: 2018 County: Deschutes Industry: Natural resources and mining Sector Jobs: 756","Year: 2023 County: Deschutes Industry: Natural resources and mining Sector Jobs: 857"],"type":"bar","textposition":"none","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(0,166,255,1)","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"transparent"}},"name":"Natural resources and mining","legendgroup":"Natural resources and mining","showlegend":true,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"orientation":"v","width":[0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177],"base":[0,0,0,0,0,0,0],"x":[1994.2272727272727,1999.2272727272727,2004.2272727272727,2009.2272727272727,2014.2272727272727,2019.2272727272727,2024.2272727272727],"y":[1967,3946,4800,7258,6879,10067,11131],"text":["Year: 1993 County: Deschutes 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---

# Deschutes Migration Flows

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---

# Deschutes Population

.pulll-left[
Growth in the county has slowed with the COVID-19 pandemic but stil remains an outlier amongst others in the state. 
]

.pulll-right[
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---

# Deschutes Compositional Changes

.pulll-left[
Migration has consistently been high in the county, however, natural change has been on the decline. 
]

.pulll-right[
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]

---

# Deschutes Births

.pulll-left[
Births have increased over time but are expected to level off in the coming years with continued decline in fertility rates.
]

.pulll-right[
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]

---

# Deschutes Deaths

.pulll-left[
Deaths have been increasing, a pattern that is expected to continue as the population ages.
]

.pulll-right[
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]

---

# Deschutes Life Expectancy & TFR

---

# Population Pyramids

.pulll-left[
Substantial aging has occurred in the county over the past 30 years, and continue in the forecast period.
]

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Age: 70-74 Population: 9,050","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 75-79 Population: 7,870","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 80-84 Population: 6,073","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 85+ Population: 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1990 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 75-79 Population: 952","Year: 1990 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 80-84 Population: 470","Year: 1990 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 85+ Population: 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2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Male Age: 75-79 Population: 5,677","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Male Age: 80-84 Population: 3,639","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Male Age: 85+ Population: 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---

# Deschutes Race and Ethnicity

.pulll-left[
The population is expected to continue to diversify with all groups expected to grow in the forecast period.
]

.pulll-right[
<div class="plotly html-widget html-fill-item" id="htmlwidget-e291840011ff78b3f683" style="width:504px;height:400px;"></div>
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]

---

# Deschutes UGB Population Changes

---

# Deschutes UGBs: Bend in Context

.pux-right[
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]

.pux-left[
<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Metric </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 1980 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2000 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2020 </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Pop 65+ </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 10.48% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 12.36% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 17.03% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Units </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 7,848 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 22,507 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 44,449 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Occupancy </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 89.33% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 93.58% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 92.17% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons Per Household </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.42 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.42 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.40 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Household Income </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $15,442 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $40,857 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $82,671 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Employment Rate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 90.62% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 95.68% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 96.24% </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]

---

# Deschutes County: Bend UGB Boundaries

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---

# Bend UGB Pop Forecast

---

# Bend UGB Pop Forecast

---

# Deschutes UGBs: La Pine in Context

.pux-right[
<img src="Deschutes_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-20-1.png" width="800px" height="400px" />
]

.pux-left[
<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Metric </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 1980 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2000 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2020 </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Pop 65+ </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> NA </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 20.73% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 20.26% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Units </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> NA </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2,975 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 1,226 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Occupancy </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> NA </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 78.35% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 84.91% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons Per Household </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> NA </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.47 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.31 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Household Income </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> NA </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $29,859 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $50,625 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Employment Rate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> NA </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 89.56% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 94.57% </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]

---

# Deschutes County: La Pine UGB Boundaries

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# La Pine UGB Pop Forecast

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# La Pine UGB Pop Forecast

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# Deschutes UGBs: Redmond in Context

.pux-right[
<img src="Deschutes_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-25-1.png" width="800px" height="400px" />
]

.pux-left[
<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Metric </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 1980 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2000 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2020 </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Pop 65+ </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 13.48% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 13.00% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 16.84% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Units </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2,678 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 5,584 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 13,262 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Occupancy </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 89.73% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 94.20% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 95.66% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons Per Household </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.65 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.54 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.61 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Household Income </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $14,542 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $33,701 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $72,798 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Employment Rate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 88.14% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 94.70% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 92.80% </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]

---

# Deschutes County: Redmond UGB Boundaries

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---

# Redmond UGB Pop Forecast

---

# Redmond UGB Pop Forecast

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# Deschutes UGBs: Sisters in Context

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]

.pux-left[
<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Metric </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 1980 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2000 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2020 </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Pop 65+ </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 21.84% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 13.87% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 36.62% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Units </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 369 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 482 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 1,661 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Occupancy </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 82.11% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 82.37% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 80.79% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons Per Household </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.30 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.41 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.28 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Household Income </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $11,326 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $35,000 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $84,088 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Employment Rate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 87.78% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 94.30% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 95.99% </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]

---

# Deschutes County: Sisters UGB Boundaries

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# Sisters UGB Pop Forecast

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# Sisters UGB Pop Forecast

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# Comments or Questions?

## Contact PSUPRC
Email: [askprc@pdx.edu](mailto:askprc@pdx.edu)  
Telephone: 503-725-3922

## Preliminary Population Projections
https://www.pdx.edu/population-research/population-forecasts

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