Oregon Population Forecast Program

.title[
# Oregon Population Forecast Program
]
.subtitle[
## Preliminary Forecasts for Counties & UGBs
]
.author[
### Harney County
]
.institute[
### Portland State University Population Research Center
]
.date[
### December 2025
]

---

# Comments or Questions?

## Contact PSUPRC
Email: [askprc@pdx.edu](mailto:askprc@pdx.edu)  
Telephone: 503-725-3922

## Preliminary Population Projections
https://www.pdx.edu/population-research/population-forecasts

---

# PSUPRC Project Team

**Joshua Wilde**  
*Research Scientist*

**Gilbert Montcho**  
*Demographic and Labor Economics Analyst*

]

**Huda Alkitkat**  
*Population Estimates Project Manager*

**David Swanson**  
*Research Associate*

**Suniva Thangaraj**  
*Program Manager*
]

---

# Harney County Outline

- Population Overview
- Total Population
- Births
- Deaths
- Migration
- Aging
- Race & Ethnicity
- UGB Forecasts

---

# Harney at a Glance: 2020 Census

.pulll-right {
 float: right;
 width: 68%;
 }
</style>

.pux-right {
 float: right;
 width: 58%;
 }
</style>

<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Statistic </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Harney </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Oregon </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Total Population </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 7,495 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 4,237,256 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Population Aged 0-17 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 19.53% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 20.20% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Population Aged 65+ </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 25.51% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 18.25% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Population non-White </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 9.83% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 23.41% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons per Household </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.32 (3,694 units) </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.48 (1,813,747 units) </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>

---

# Harney Employment Changes

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1,064"],"type":"bar","textposition":"none","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(100,178,0,1)","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"transparent"}},"name":"Government","legendgroup":"Government","showlegend":true,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"orientation":"v","width":[0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177],"base":[0,0,0,0,0,0,0],"x":[1992.590909090909,1997.590909090909,2002.590909090909,2007.590909090909,2012.590909090909,2017.590909090909,2022.590909090909],"y":[18,22,35,26,0,13,12],"text":["Year: 1993 County: Harney Industry: Information Sector Jobs: 18","Year: 1998 County: Harney Industry: Information Sector Jobs: 22","Year: 2003 County: Harney Industry: Information Sector Jobs: 35","Year: 2008 County: Harney Industry: Information Sector Jobs: 26","Year: 2013 County: Harney Industry: Information Sector Jobs: 0","Year: 2018 County: Harney 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---

# Harney Migration Flows

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---

# Harney Population

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Harney's population has been on the decline, and expected to continue decline moving forward, 
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---

# Harney Compositional Changes

.pulll-left[
Natural change has sharply fallen and is epxted to overcome net migration in the coming years.
]

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---

# Harney Births

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---

# Harney Deaths

.pulll-left[
Deaths in the county have continued to increase as the population has aged over time. 
]

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---

# Harney Life Expectancy & TFR

---

# Population Pyramids

.pulll-left[
The population aged 65 and older has continued to grown while out migration of young populations creates a "top heavy" population structure.
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---

# Harney Race and Ethnicity

.pulll-left[
Most population decline has been observed in the White population, while the AIAN population remains stable and the Hispanic population slowly grows. 
]

.pulll-right[
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]

---

# Harney UGB Population Changes

---

# Harney UGBs: Burns in Context

.pux-right[
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]

.pux-left[
<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Metric </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 1980 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2000 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2020 </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Pop 65+ </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 12.85% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 16.29% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 21.06% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Units </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 1,494 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 1,487 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 1,407 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Occupancy </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 91.10% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 85.54% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 88.27% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons Per Household </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.60 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.33 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.17 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Household Income </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $16,308 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $26,658 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $41,374 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Employment Rate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 81.20% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 92.72% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 93.42% </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]

---

# Harney County: Burns UGB Boundaries

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---

# Burns UGB Pop Forecast

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# Burns UGB Pop Forecast

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# Harney UGBs: Hines in Context

.pux-right[
<img src="Harney_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-20-1.png" width="800px" height="400px" />
]

.pux-left[
<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Metric </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 1980 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2000 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2020 </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Pop 65+ </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 8.88% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 13.99% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 20.97% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Units </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 575 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 689 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 723 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Occupancy </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 96.87% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 93.03% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 93.50% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons Per Household </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.93 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.50 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.30 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Household Income </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $20,566 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $40,917 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $47,321 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Employment Rate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 81.35% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 89.30% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 93.27% </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]

---

# Harney County: Hines UGB Boundaries

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# Hines UGB Pop Forecast

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# Hines UGB Pop Forecast

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# Comments or Questions?

## Contact PSUPRC
Email: [askprc@pdx.edu](mailto:askprc@pdx.edu)  
Telephone: 503-725-3922

## Preliminary Population Projections
https://www.pdx.edu/population-research/population-forecasts

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