Oregon Population Forecast Program

.title[
# Oregon Population Forecast Program
]
.subtitle[
## Preliminary Forecasts for Counties & UGBs
]
.author[
### Jefferson County
]
.institute[
### Portland State University Population Research Center
]
.date[
### December 2025
]

---

# Comments or Questions?

## Contact PSUPRC
Email: [askprc@pdx.edu](mailto:askprc@pdx.edu)  
Telephone: 503-725-3922

## Preliminary Population Projections
https://www.pdx.edu/population-research/population-forecasts

---

# PSUPRC Project Team

**Joshua Wilde**  
*Research Scientist*

**Gilbert Montcho**  
*Demographic and Labor Economics Analyst*

]

**Huda Alkitkat**  
*Population Estimates Project Manager*

**David Swanson**  
*Research Associate*

**Suniva Thangaraj**  
*Program Manager*
]

---

# Jefferson County Outline

- Population Overview
- Total Population
- Births
- Deaths
- Migration
- Aging
- Race & Ethnicity
- UGB Forecasts

---

# Jefferson at a Glance: 2020 Census

.pulll-right {
 float: right;
 width: 68%;
 }
</style>

.pux-right {
 float: right;
 width: 58%;
 }
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<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Statistic </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Jefferson </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Oregon </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Total Population </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 24,502 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 4,237,256 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Population Aged 0-17 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 23.15% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 20.20% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Population Aged 65+ </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 19.58% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 18.25% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Population non-White </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 34.73% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 23.41% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons per Household </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.70 (10,250 units) </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.48 (1,813,747 units) </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>

---

# Jefferson Employment Changes

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---

# Jefferson Migration Flows

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---

# Jefferson Population

.pulll-left[
Jefferson county is expected to growth in the forecast period, albeit at a slower rate then previously observed.
]

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<div class="plotly html-widget html-fill-item" id="htmlwidget-a3948e1f535639335d21" style="width:504px;height:400px;"></div>
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---

# Jefferson Compositional Changes

.pulll-right[
<div class="plotly html-widget html-fill-item" id="htmlwidget-434a26ed4abee097ed5b" style="width:504px;height:400px;"></div>
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]

---

# Jefferson Births

.pulll-left[
Births have been on the decline, a trend that is expected to continue through teh forecast period.
]

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<div class="plotly html-widget html-fill-item" id="htmlwidget-013dabccafadb06357f7" style="width:504px;height:400px;"></div>
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]

---

# Jefferson Deaths

.pulll-right[
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---

# Jefferson Life Expectancy & TFR

---

# Population Pyramids

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Jefferson county is expected to continue to age, leading to a "top-heavy" population structure.
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]

---

# Jefferson Race and Ethnicity

.pulll-left[
The population is expected to continue to diversify, with strong growth seen among the Hispanic population.
]

.pulll-right[
<div class="plotly html-widget html-fill-item" id="htmlwidget-fde08815a08ace0a3060" style="width:504px;height:400px;"></div>
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]

---

# Jefferson UGB Population Changes

---

# Jefferson UGBs: Culver in Context

.pux-right[
<img src="Jefferson_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-15-1.png" width="800px" height="400px" />
]

.pux-left[
<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Metric </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 1980 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2000 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2020 </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Pop 65+ </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 6.61% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 11.10% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 10.24% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Units </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 185 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 275 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 561 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Occupancy </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 94.59% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 92.36% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 94.65% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons Per Household </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.94 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 3.16 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.98 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Household Income </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $14,653 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $31,667 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $81,534 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Employment Rate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 85.17% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 95.24% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 98.70% </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]

---

# Jefferson County: Culver UGB Boundaries

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---

# Culver UGB Pop Forecast

---

# Culver UGB Pop Forecast

---

# Jefferson UGBs: Madras in Context

.pux-right[
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.pux-left[
<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Metric </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 1980 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2000 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2020 </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Pop 65+ </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 14.63% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 10.52% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 12.94% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Units </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 953 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 1,952 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2,878 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Occupancy </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 90.03% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 92.26% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 94.02% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons Per Household </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.50 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.78 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.72 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Household Income </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $12,489 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $29,103 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $52,500 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Employment Rate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 92.57% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 90.23% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 89.95% </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]

---

# Jefferson County: Madras UGB Boundaries

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---

# Madras UGB Pop Forecast

---

# Madras UGB Pop Forecast

---

# Jefferson UGBs: Metolius in Context

.pux-right[
<img src="Jefferson_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-25-1.png" width="800px" height="400px" />
]

.pux-left[
<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Metric </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 1980 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2000 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2020 </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Pop 65+ </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 8.65% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 11.18% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 12.17% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Units </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 150 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 220 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 360 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Occupancy </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 96.00% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 97.27% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 93.89% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons Per Household </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 3.13 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.97 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.89 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Household Income </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $15,119 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $32,375 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $68,382 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Employment Rate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 87.37% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 86.00% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 96.56% </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]

---

# Jefferson County: Metolius UGB Boundaries

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# Metolius UGB Pop Forecast

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# Metolius UGB Pop Forecast

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# Comments or Questions?

## Contact PSUPRC
Email: [askprc@pdx.edu](mailto:askprc@pdx.edu)  
Telephone: 503-725-3922

## Preliminary Population Projections
https://www.pdx.edu/population-research/population-forecasts

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