Oregon Population Forecast Program

.title[
# Oregon Population Forecast Program
]
.subtitle[
## Preliminary Forecasts for Counties & UGBs
]
.author[
### Josephine County
]
.institute[
### Portland State University Population Research Center
]
.date[
### December 2025
]

---

# Comments or Questions?

## Contact PSUPRC
Email: [askprc@pdx.edu](mailto:askprc@pdx.edu)  
Telephone: 503-725-3922

## Preliminary Population Projections
https://www.pdx.edu/population-research/population-forecasts

---

# PSUPRC Project Team

**Joshua Wilde**  
*Research Scientist*

**Gilbert Montcho**  
*Demographic and Labor Economics Analyst*

]

**Huda Alkitkat**  
*Population Estimates Project Manager*

**David Swanson**  
*Research Associate*

**Suniva Thangaraj**  
*Program Manager*
]

---

# Josephine County Outline

- Population Overview
- Total Population
- Births
- Deaths
- Migration
- Aging
- Race & Ethnicity
- UGB Forecasts

---

# Josephine at a Glance: 2020 Census

.pulll-right {
 float: right;
 width: 68%;
 }
</style>

.pux-right {
 float: right;
 width: 58%;
 }
</style>

<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Statistic </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Josephine </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Oregon </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Total Population </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 88,090 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 4,237,256 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Population Aged 0-17 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 19.08% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 20.20% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Population Aged 65+ </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 26.50% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 18.25% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Population non-White </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 11.94% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 23.41% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons per Household </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.40 (38,748 units) </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.48 (1,813,747 units) </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>

---

# Josephine Employment Changes

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activities Sector Jobs: 1,425"],"type":"bar","textposition":"none","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(174,162,0,1)","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"transparent"}},"name":"Financial activities","legendgroup":"Financial activities","showlegend":true,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"orientation":"v","width":[0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177],"base":[0,0,0,0,0,0,0],"x":[1992.1818181818182,1997.1818181818182,2002.1818181818182,2007.1818181818182,2012.1818181818182,2017.1818181818182,2022.1818181818182],"y":[3282,3724,3264,3321,3025,3256,3355],"text":["Year: 1993 County: Josephine Industry: Government Sector Jobs: 3,282","Year: 1998 County: Josephine Industry: Government Sector Jobs: 3,724","Year: 2003 County: Josephine Industry: Government Sector Jobs: 3,264","Year: 2008 County: Josephine Industry: Government Sector Jobs: 3,321","Year: 2013 County: Josephine Industry: Government Sector Jobs: 3,025","Year: 2018 County: Josephine Industry: Government Sector Jobs: 3,256","Year: 2023 County: Josephine Industry: Government Sector Jobs: 3,355"],"type":"bar","textposition":"none","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(100,178,0,1)","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"transparent"}},"name":"Government","legendgroup":"Government","showlegend":true,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"orientation":"v","width":[0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177],"base":[0,0,0,0,0,0,0],"x":[1992.590909090909,1997.590909090909,2002.590909090909,2007.590909090909,2012.590909090909,2017.590909090909,2022.590909090909],"y":[329,452,360,346,262,245,244],"text":["Year: 1993 County: Josephine Industry: Information Sector Jobs: 329","Year: 1998 County: Josephine Industry: Information Sector Jobs: 452","Year: 2003 County: Josephine Industry: Information Sector Jobs: 360","Year: 2008 County: Josephine Industry: Information Sector Jobs: 346","Year: 2013 County: Josephine Industry: Information Sector Jobs: 262","Year: 2018 County: Josephine Industry: Information Sector Jobs: 245","Year: 2023 County: Josephine Industry: Information Sector Jobs: 244"],"type":"bar","textposition":"none","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(0,189,92,1)","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"transparent"}},"name":"Information","legendgroup":"Information","showlegend":true,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"orientation":"v","width":[0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177],"base":[0,0,0,0,0,0,0],"x":[1993,1998,2003,2008,2013,2018,2023],"y":[2177,2324,2429,2686,2678,3365,3451],"text":["Year: 1993 County: Josephine Industry: Leisure and hospitality Sector Jobs: 2,177","Year: 1998 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---

# Josephine Migration Flows

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---

# Josephine Population

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---

# Josephine Compositional Changes

.pulll-left[
Natural growth continues to decline slowing growth to the county despite consistent migration.
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---

# Josephine Births

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]

---

# Josephine Deaths

.pulll-right[
<div class="plotly html-widget html-fill-item" id="htmlwidget-43a6bb48b586fc00d2e8" style="width:504px;height:400px;"></div>
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]

---

# Josephine Life Expectancy & TFR

---

# Population Pyramids

.pulll-left[
Growth of the population 65 and older is expected to make the compostion of the county more "top-heavy".
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2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 0-4 Population: 1,533","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 5-9 Population: 1,693","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 10-14 Population: 1,976","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 15-19 Population: 2,181","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 20-24 Population: 2,072","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 25-29 Population: 2,055","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 30-34 Population: 2,668","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 35-39 Population: 2,741","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 40-44 Population: 2,739","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 45-49 Population: 2,824","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 50-54 Population: 3,474","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 55-59 Population: 3,949","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 60-64 Population: 3,842","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 65-69 Population: 3,707","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 70-74 Population: 3,395","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 75-79 Population: 2,966","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 80-84 Population: 2,350","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 85+ Population: 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1990 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 75-79 Population: 1,166","Year: 1990 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 80-84 Population: 633","Year: 1990 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 85+ Population: 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2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Male Age: 75-79 Population: 2,659","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Male Age: 80-84 Population: 1,860","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Male Age: 85+ Population: 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2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Male Age: 0-4 Population: 1,605","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Male Age: 5-9 Population: 1,784","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Male Age: 10-14 Population: 2,109","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Male Age: 15-19 Population: 2,366","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Male Age: 20-24 Population: 2,260","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Male Age: 25-29 Population: 2,257","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Male Age: 30-34 Population: 2,655","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Male Age: 35-39 Population: 2,770","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Male Age: 40-44 Population: 2,703","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Male Age: 45-49 Population: 2,785","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Male Age: 50-54 Population: 3,428","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Male Age: 55-59 Population: 3,678","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Male Age: 60-64 Population: 3,525","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Male Age: 65-69 Population: 3,487","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Male Age: 70-74 Population: 3,096","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Male Age: 75-79 Population: 2,656","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Male Age: 80-84 Population: 1,907","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Male Age: 85+ Population: 1,624"],"type":"bar","textposition":"none","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(165,223,249,1)","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"transparent"}},"name":"Male","legendgroup":"Male","showlegend":false,"xaxis":"x2","yaxis":"y2","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null}],"layout":{"margin":{"t":62.492320464923225,"r":9.2984640929846432,"b":47.422166874221681,"l":69.73848069738483},"plot_bgcolor":"rgba(255,255,255,1)","paper_bgcolor":"rgba(255,255,255,1)","font":{"color":"rgba(0,0,0,1)","family":"","size":18.596928185969286},"title":{"text":" Age 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]

---

# Josephine Race and Ethnicity

.pulll-left[
Josephine is expected to continue to diversity as the White population slows in growth. 
]

.pulll-right[
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---

# Josephine UGB Population Changes

---

# Josephine UGBs: Cave Junction in Context

.pux-right[
<img src="Josephine_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-15-1.png" width="800px" height="400px" />
]

.pux-left[
<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Metric </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 1980 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2000 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2020 </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Pop 65+ </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 26.10% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 21.79% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 26.56% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Units </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 484 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 730 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 968 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Occupancy </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 93.80% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 82.60% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 90.70% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons Per Household </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.25 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.26 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.36 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Household Income </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $8,333 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $17,161 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $34,594 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Employment Rate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 87.64% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 91.06% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 89.66% </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]

---

# Josephine County: Cave Junction UGB Boundaries

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# Cave Junction UGB Pop Forecast

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# Cave Junction UGB Pop Forecast

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# Josephine UGBs: Grants Pass in Context

.pux-right[
<img src="Josephine_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-20-1.png" width="800px" height="400px" />
]

.pux-left[
<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Metric </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 1980 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2000 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2020 </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Pop 65+ </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 18.53% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 19.41% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 22.09% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Units </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 6,356 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 9,885 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 16,681 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Occupancy </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 95.30% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 94.85% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 95.11% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons Per Household </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.42 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.36 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.38 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Household Income </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $12,664 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $29,197 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $53,941 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Employment Rate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 90.73% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 90.78% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 93.73% </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]

---

# Josephine County: Grants Pass UGB Boundaries

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# Grants Pass UGB Pop Forecast

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# Grants Pass UGB Pop Forecast

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# Comments or Questions?

## Contact PSUPRC
Email: [askprc@pdx.edu](mailto:askprc@pdx.edu)  
Telephone: 503-725-3922

## Preliminary Population Projections
https://www.pdx.edu/population-research/population-forecasts