Oregon Population Forecast Program

.title[
# Oregon Population Forecast Program
]
.subtitle[
## Preliminary Forecasts for Counties & UGBs
]
.author[
### Lake County
]
.institute[
### Portland State University Population Research Center
]
.date[
### December 2025
]

---

# Comments or Questions?

## Contact PSUPRC
Email: [askprc@pdx.edu](mailto:askprc@pdx.edu)  
Telephone: 503-725-3922

## Preliminary Population Projections
https://www.pdx.edu/population-research/population-forecasts

---

# PSUPRC Project Team

**Joshua Wilde**  
*Research Scientist*

**Gilbert Montcho**  
*Demographic and Labor Economics Analyst*

]

**Huda Alkitkat**  
*Population Estimates Project Manager*

**David Swanson**  
*Research Associate*

**Suniva Thangaraj**  
*Program Manager*
]

---

# Lake County Outline

- Population Overview
- Total Population
- Births
- Deaths
- Migration
- Aging
- Race & Ethnicity
- UGB Forecasts

---

# Lake at a Glance: 2020 Census

.pulll-right {
 float: right;
 width: 68%;
 }
</style>

.pux-right {
 float: right;
 width: 58%;
 }
</style>

<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Statistic </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Lake </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Oregon </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Total Population </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 8,160 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 4,237,256 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Population Aged 0-17 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 18.86% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 20.20% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Population Aged 65+ </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 25.49% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 18.25% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Population non-White </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 13.84% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 23.41% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons per Household </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.25 (4,195 units) </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.48 (1,813,747 units) </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>

---

# Lake Employment Changes

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---

# Lake Migration Flows

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---

# Lake Population

.pulll-left[
Lake's population is expected to continue to grow albeit at a rate slower than observed in the past.
]

.pulll-right[
<div class="plotly html-widget html-fill-item" id="htmlwidget-c152163419965fe220f9" style="width:504px;height:400px;"></div>
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]

---

# Lake Compositional Changes

.pulll-left[
Natural change has been on the decline, lowering the impact of positive net migration. 
]

.pulll-right[
<div class="plotly html-widget html-fill-item" id="htmlwidget-f00996668d33b1f76a3f" style="width:504px;height:400px;"></div>
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]

---

# Lake Births

.pulll-right[
<div class="plotly html-widget html-fill-item" id="htmlwidget-3a3a9d5cf9f539fcc576" style="width:504px;height:400px;"></div>
<script type="application/json" data-for="htmlwidget-3a3a9d5cf9f539fcc576">{"x":{"data":[{"orientation":"v","width":[0.89999999999999991,0.90000000000000013,0.90000000000000036,0.90000000000000036,0.90000000000000036,0.90000000000000036,0.90000000000000036,0.89999999999999947,0.89999999999999858,0.89999999999999858,0.89999999999999858,0.89999999999999858],"base":[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0],"x":[1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12],"y":[96.400000000000006,73.599999999999994,68.200000000000003,71.200000000000003,78.799999999999997,68.400000000000006,79,76.015291555622611,75.701543403751529,75.681920295326762,75.979550702473091,74.42555741497236],"text":["Year: 1991-1995 Annual Births: 96","Year: 1996-2000 Annual Births: 74","Year: 2001-2005 Annual Births: 68","Year: 2006-2010 Annual Births: 71","Year: 2011-2015 Annual Births: 79","Year: 2016-2020 Annual Births: 68","Year: 2021-2025 Annual Births: 79","Year: 2026-2030 Annual Births: 76","Year: 2031-2035 Annual Births: 76","Year: 2036-2040 Annual 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]

---

# Lake Deaths

.pulll-right[
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]

---

# Lake Life Expectancy & TFR

---

# Population Pyramids

.pulll-left[
The population structure of the county is expected to remain relatively stable due to migration and higher than average fertility rates.
]

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58","Year: 1990 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 85+ Population: 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---

# Lake Race and Ethnicity

.pulll-left[
Growth in the county has been strongly driven by growth among the Hispanic population.
]

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]

---

# Lake UGB Population Changes

---

# Lake UGBs: Lakeview in Context

.pux-right[
<img src="Lake_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-15-1.png" width="800px" height="400px" />
]

.pux-left[
<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Metric </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 1980 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2000 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2020 </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Pop 65+ </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 13.94% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 19.56% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 30.81% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Units </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 1,149 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 1,220 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 1,211 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Occupancy </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 93.82% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 85.00% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 88.93% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons Per Household </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.53 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.34 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.20 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Household Income </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $17,885 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $30,960 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $52,574 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Employment Rate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 89.20% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 93.35% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 92.54% </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]

---

# Lake County: Lakeview UGB Boundaries

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# Lakeview UGB Pop Forecast

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# Lakeview UGB Pop Forecast

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# Lake UGBs: Paisley in Context

.pux-right[
<img src="Lake_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-20-1.png" width="800px" height="400px" />
]

.pux-left[
<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Metric </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 1980 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2000 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2020 </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Pop 65+ </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 9.62% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 23.89% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 23.60% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Units </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 154 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 176 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 134 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Occupancy </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 84.42% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 65.34% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 76.12% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons Per Household </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.64 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.15 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.32 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Household Income </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $14,231 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $28,214 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $44,609 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Employment Rate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 87.10% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 94.69% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 91.23% </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]

---

# Lake County: Paisley UGB Boundaries

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# Paisley UGB Pop Forecast

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# Paisley UGB Pop Forecast

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# Comments or Questions?

## Contact PSUPRC
Email: [askprc@pdx.edu](mailto:askprc@pdx.edu)  
Telephone: 503-725-3922

## Preliminary Population Projections
https://www.pdx.edu/population-research/population-forecasts

---