class: center, middle, inverse, title-slide .title[ # Oregon Population Forecast Program ] .subtitle[ ## Proposal Forecasts for Counties & UGBs ] .author[ ### Benton County ] .institute[ ### Portland State University Population Research Center ] .date[ ### February 2025 ] --- class: center # Comments or Questions? ## Contact PSUPRC Email: [askprc@pdx.edu](mailto:askprc@pdx.edu) Telephone: 503-725-3922 ## Preliminary Population Projections https://www.pdx.edu/population-research/population-forecasts --- class: center # PSUPRC Project Team .pull-left[ **Huda Alkitkat, PhD.** *Population Estimates Manager* **Seth Dowden** *Research Assistant* **Neal Marquez, PhD.** *Population Forecast Manager* **Gilbert Montcho, PhD.** *Demographic & Labor Econ Analyst* **Scott Nordstrom, PhD.** *Post-Doctoral Researcher* ] .pull-right[ **Ethan Sharygin, PhD.** *Director* **Aja Sutton, PhD.** *Post-Doctoral Researcher* **David Swanson, PhD.** *Research Associate* **Suniva Thangaraj** *Program Manager* **Joshua Wilde, PhD.** *Research Scientist* ] --- # Benton County Outline - Introduction - Updates - County Overview - UGB Forecasts <style type="text/css"> .pulll-left { float: left; width: 20%; } .pulll-right { float: right; width: 68%; } </style> <style type="text/css"> .pux-left { float: left; width: 38%; } .pux-right { float: right; width: 58%; } </style> <style type="text/css"> .puz-left { float: left; width: 58%; } .puz-right { float: right; width: 38%; } </style> <style type="text/css"> .city table { font-size: 14px; } </style> --- # PSUPRC OPFP Population Forecasts .puz-left[ - For the purposes of land use planning PSUPRC generates population forecasts - For counties, urban growth boundaries (UGBs), and areas outside UGBs - These forecasts must - Be updated at least every four years - Cover a 50 year forecast horizon - Include most up to date data - Allow for public input/objections - Methods & results publicly available ] .puz-right[  ] --- # Oregon Population Forecast Program Cycle  --- # Methods Review: Cohort Component Method .pux-left[ - For Counties - Births = Females 15-50 * Birth Rate - Both number of and rate of births in OR decreasing - Deaths = All Population * Death Rate - While number of deaths are increasing rate of deaths decreasing - Migration = Past migration events - Average of past migration is most likely scenario moving forward ] .pux-right[  ] --- # Methods Review: Housing Unit Method .pull-left[ - For UGBs - `\(P_t = P_{t-1} + \Delta HU*PPH*OCC\)` - `\(PPH\)`: Persons per household - Estimated from most recent census data - `\(OCC\)`: Occupancy Rate - Estimated from most recent census data - `\(\Delta HU\)`: annual change in housing units - Modeled based on past housing unit growth trends ] .pull-right[  ] --- # After this meeting - Email for further follow up - March 15, 2025 forecast discussion period ends - Chance to formally appeal until May 5, 2025 - Will review appeals in the following week - No further changes will be made after May 15, 2025 - Reports and data tables will be available June 15, 2025 --- class: center, middle, inverse # Updates --- # Survey and Preliminary Meeting Feedback - Received housing and general survey responses from over 20 organizations - Updated GIS UGB boundary lines - Account for large public works alter housing development trajectories - Incorporate group quarter expansions - Adjusted housing unit productions - Housing build moratoriums - General concerns - Restrictions on development - Access to others responses --- # Incoporation of 2024 Certified Estimates  --- # Agreement from US Census Bureau Concerning Oregon's Growth  --- # Fertility Changes  --- # Life Expectancy Changes  # Housing Developments  --- class: center, middle, inverse # Benton County Forecast --- # Benton County at a Glance <table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:left;"> Statistic </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> Benton </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> Oregon </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Total Population </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 95,184 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 4,237,256 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Population Aged 0-17 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 15.52% </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 20.20% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Population Aged 65+ </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 16.97% </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 18.25% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Population non-White </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 19.04% </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 23.41% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons per Household </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.37 (40,150 units) </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.48 (1,813,747 units) </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> --- # Benton County Beyond the Census
--- # Benton Employment Changes
--- # Benton Migration Flows
--- # Benton Population .pulll-left[ We project that Benton's population will continue to grow, albeit at a slower rate than what has been observed in the past. ] .pulll-right[
] --- # Benton Compositional Changes .pulll-left[ Historically, population growth has come from natural change and net migration. In the future it will be driven solely by net migration. ] .pulll-right[
] --- # Benton Births .pulll-left[ Birth numbers are low for Benton County, and will continue to decline in the future as fertilty rates decrease. ] .pulll-right[
] --- # Benton Deaths .pulll-left[ Deaths in Benton County will increase as the population ages. ] .pulll-right[
] --- # Benton Life Expectancy & TFR <img src="Benton_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-14-1.png" width="750px" height="500px" /> --- # Population Pyramids .pulll-left[ Benton's population age structure will continue to be heavily influenced by the college age population. ] .pulll-right[
] --- # Benton Race and Ethnicity .pulll-left[ Benton's non-White population will continue to grow more quickly than the White population. ] .pulll-right[
] --- # Benton UGB Population Changes
--- class: center, middle, inverse # Benton UGB Forecasts --- class: city # Benton UGBs: Adair Village in Context .pux-right[ <img src="Benton_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-18-1.png" width="800px" height="400px" /> ] .pux-left[ <table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:left;"> Metric </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> 1980 </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> 2000 </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> 2020 </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Pop 65+ </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 3.40% </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 3.17% </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 9.76% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Units </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 155 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 180 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 359 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Occupancy </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 94.19% </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 94.44% </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 94.71% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons Per Household </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 3.72 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 3.15 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.87 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Household Income </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> $70,987 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> $91,527 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> $113,830 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Employment Rate </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 81.14% </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 92.47% </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 95.08% </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> ] --- # Adair Village Beyond the Census
--- # Adair Village Beyond the Census
--- # Benton County: Adair Village UGB Boundaries
--- # Adair Village UGB Pop Forecast <img src="Benton_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-23-1.png" width="750px" height="500px" /> --- # Adair Village UGB Pop Forecast <img src="Benton_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-24-1.png" width="750px" height="500px" /> --- class: city # Benton UGBs: Albany in Context .pux-right[ <img src="Benton_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-25-1.png" width="800px" height="400px" /> ] .pux-left[ <table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:left;"> Metric </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> 1980 </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> 2000 </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> 2020 </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Pop 65+ </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 9.51% </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 12.73% </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 15.57% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Units </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 11,256 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 17,374 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 23,105 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Occupancy </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 92.53% </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 92.71% </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 95.90% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons Per Household </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.52 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.49 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.51 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Household Income </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> $61,658 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> $73,612 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> $86,719 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Employment Rate </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 90.86% </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 91.86% </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 93.35% </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> ] --- # Albany Beyond the Census
--- # Albany Beyond the Census
--- # Benton County: Albany UGB Boundaries
--- # Albany UGB Pop Forecast <img src="Benton_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-30-1.png" width="750px" height="500px" /> --- # Albany UGB Pop Forecast <img src="Benton_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-31-1.png" width="750px" height="500px" /> --- class: city # Benton UGBs: Corvallis in Context .pux-right[ <img src="Benton_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-32-1.png" width="800px" height="400px" /> ] .pux-left[ <table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:left;"> Metric </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> 1980 </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> 2000 </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> 2020 </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Pop 65+ </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 7.59% </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 10.08% </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 13.63% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Units </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 15,375 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 20,909 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 25,732 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Occupancy </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 95.20% </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 93.88% </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 92.79% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons Per Household </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.31 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.26 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.25 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Household Income </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> $53,165 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> $65,817 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> $76,569 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Employment Rate </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 93.26% </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 94.66% </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 92.01% </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> ] --- # Corvallis Beyond the Census
--- # Corvallis Beyond the Census
--- # Benton County: Corvallis UGB Boundaries
--- # Corvallis UGB Pop Forecast <img src="Benton_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-37-1.png" width="750px" height="500px" /> --- # Corvallis UGB Pop Forecast <img src="Benton_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-38-1.png" width="750px" height="500px" /> --- class: city # Benton UGBs: Monroe in Context .pux-right[ <img src="Benton_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-39-1.png" width="800px" height="400px" /> ] .pux-left[ <table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:left;"> Metric </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> 1980 </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> 2000 </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> 2020 </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Pop 65+ </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 16.26% </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 8.40% </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 21.33% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Units </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 190 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 262 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 281 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Occupancy </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 91.58% </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 85.88% </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 91.46% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons Per Household </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.37 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.70 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.52 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Household Income </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> $47,162 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> $57,204 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> $69,752 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Employment Rate </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 81.71% </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 92.11% </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 91.96% </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> ] --- # Monroe Beyond the Census
--- # Monroe Beyond the Census
--- # Benton County: Monroe UGB Boundaries
--- # Monroe UGB Pop Forecast <img src="Benton_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-44-1.png" width="750px" height="500px" /> --- # Monroe UGB Pop Forecast <img src="Benton_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-45-1.png" width="750px" height="500px" /> --- class: city # Benton UGBs: Philomath in Context .pux-right[ <img src="Benton_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-46-1.png" width="800px" height="400px" /> ] .pux-left[ <table> <thead> <tr> <th style="text-align:left;"> Metric </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> 1980 </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> 2000 </th> <th style="text-align:left;"> 2020 </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Pop 65+ </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 8.45% </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 6.88% </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 16.34% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Units </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 1,083 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 1,434 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2,270 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Occupancy </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 90.77% </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 93.86% </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 92.60% </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons Per Household </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.69 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.85 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.53 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Household Income </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> $61,307 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> $77,445 </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> $100,169 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:left;"> Employment Rate </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 90.68% </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 95.88% </td> <td style="text-align:left;"> 96.22% </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> ] --- # Philomath Beyond the Census
--- # Philomath Beyond the Census
--- # Benton County: Philomath UGB Boundaries
--- # Philomath UGB Pop Forecast <img src="Benton_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-51-1.png" width="750px" height="500px" /> --- # Philomath UGB Pop Forecast <img src="Benton_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-52-1.png" width="750px" height="500px" /> --- class: center # Comments or Questions? ## Contact PSUPRC Email: [askprc@pdx.edu](mailto:askprc@pdx.edu) Telephone: 503-725-3922 ## Preliminary Population Projections https://www.pdx.edu/population-research/population-forecasts