Oregon Population Forecast Program

.title[
# Oregon Population Forecast Program
]
.subtitle[
## Proposal Forecasts for Counties & UGBs
]
.author[
### Lane County
]
.institute[
### Portland State University Population Research Center
]
.date[
### February 2025
]

---

# Comments or Questions?

## Contact PSUPRC
Email: [askprc@pdx.edu](mailto:askprc@pdx.edu)  
Telephone: 503-725-3922

## Preliminary Population Projections
https://www.pdx.edu/population-research/population-forecasts

---

# PSUPRC Project Team

**Huda Alkitkat, PhD.**  
*Population Estimates Manager*

**Seth Dowden**  
*Research Assistant*

**Neal Marquez, PhD.**  
*Population Forecast Manager*

**Gilbert Montcho, PhD.**  
*Demographic & Labor Econ Analyst*

**Scott Nordstrom, PhD.**  
*Post-Doctoral Researcher*
]

**Aja Sutton, PhD.**  
*Post-Doctoral Researcher*

**David Swanson, PhD.**  
*Research Associate*

**Suniva Thangaraj**  
*Program Manager*

**Joshua Wilde, PhD.**  
*Research Scientist*
]

---

# Lane County Outline

- Introduction
- Updates
- County Overview
- UGB Forecasts

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---

# PSUPRC OPFP Population Forecasts

.puz-left[
- For the purposes of land use planning PSUPRC generates population forecasts
- For counties, urban growth boundaries (UGBs), and areas outside UGBs
- These forecasts must
    - Be updated at least every four years
    - Cover a 50 year forecast horizon
    - Include most up to date data
    - Allow for public input/objections
    - Methods & results publicly available

]

.puz-right[
![Oregon Seal](https://sos.oregon.gov/PublishingImages/Oregon-State-Seal-Navy-Gold.png)
]

---
# Oregon Population Forecast Program Cycle

![Program Cycle](program_cycle.png)

---
# Methods Review: Cohort Component Method

.pux-left[
- For Counties
- Births = Females 15-50 * Birth Rate
  - Both number of and rate of births in OR decreasing
- Deaths = All Population * Death Rate
  - While number of deaths are increasing rate of deaths decreasing
- Migration = Past migration events
  - Average of past migration is most likely scenario moving forward

]

---
# Methods Review: Housing Unit Method

.pull-left[
- For UGBs
- `$P_t = P_{t-1} + \Delta HU*PPH*OCC$`
- `$PPH$`: Persons per household
  - Estimated from most recent census data
- `$OCC$`: Occupancy Rate
  - Estimated from most recent census data
- `$\Delta HU$`: annual change in housing units
  - Modeled based on past housing unit growth trends

]

---
# After this meeting

- Email for further follow up  
- March 15, 2025 forecast discussion period ends
- Chance to formally appeal until May 5, 2025
  - Will review appeals in the following week
- No further changes will be made after May 15, 2025
- Reports and data tables will be available June 15, 2025

---
class: center, middle, inverse

# Updates

---
# Survey and Preliminary Meeting Feedback

- Received housing and general survey responses from over 20 organizations
- Updated GIS UGB boundary lines 
- Account for large public works alter housing development trajectories
- Incorporate group quarter expansions
- Adjusted housing unit productions
- Housing build moratoriums
- General concerns
  - Restrictions on development  
  - Access to others responses
  
---
# Incoporation of 2024 Certified Estimates

![Estimates](./pop_est_page.png)

---
# Agreement from US Census Bureau Concerning Oregon's Growth

![Oregonion](./oregonian.png)

---

# Fertility Changes

![Oregonion](./birth_story.png)

---

# Life Expectancy Changes

![lex](./lex_recent.png)

# Housing Developments

![housing](./housing_news.png)

---
class: center, middle, inverse

# Lane County Forecast

---
# Lane County at a Glance

<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Statistic </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Lane </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Oregon </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Total Population </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 382,971 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 4,237,256 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Population Aged 0-17 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 17.74% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 20.20% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Population Aged 65+ </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 20.03% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 18.25% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Population non-White </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 16.45% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 23.41% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons per Household </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.36 (166,226 units) </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.48 (1,813,747 units) </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>

---

# Lane County Beyond the Census

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---

# Lane Employment Changes

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Sector Jobs: 21,119","Year: 2013 County: Lane Industry: Education and health services Sector Jobs: 22,413","Year: 2018 County: Lane Industry: Education and health services Sector Jobs: 27,769","Year: 2023 County: Lane Industry: Education and health services Sector Jobs: 28,684"],"type":"bar","textposition":"none","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(219,142,0,1)","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"transparent"}},"name":"Education and health services","legendgroup":"Education and health services","showlegend":true,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"orientation":"v","width":[0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177],"base":[0,0,0,0,0,0,0],"x":[1991.7727272727273,1996.7727272727273,2001.7727272727273,2006.7727272727273,2011.7727272727273,2016.7727272727273,2021.7727272727273],"y":[5305,6489,6521,6649,6114,6200,6854],"text":["Year: 1993 County: Lane 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25,305"],"type":"bar","textposition":"none","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(100,178,0,1)","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"transparent"}},"name":"Government","legendgroup":"Government","showlegend":true,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"orientation":"v","width":[0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177],"base":[0,0,0,0,0,0,0],"x":[1992.590909090909,1997.590909090909,2002.590909090909,2007.590909090909,2012.590909090909,2017.590909090909,2022.590909090909],"y":[2916,3923,3463,3832,3364,2411,1926],"text":["Year: 1993 County: Lane Industry: Information Sector Jobs: 2,916","Year: 1998 County: Lane Industry: Information Sector Jobs: 3,923","Year: 2003 County: Lane Industry: Information Sector Jobs: 3,463","Year: 2008 County: Lane Industry: Information Sector Jobs: 3,832","Year: 2013 County: Lane Industry: Information Sector Jobs: 3,364","Year: 2018 County: Lane Industry: Information Sector Jobs: 2,411","Year: 2023 County: Lane Industry: Information Sector Jobs: 1,926"],"type":"bar","textposition":"none","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(0,189,92,1)","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"transparent"}},"name":"Information","legendgroup":"Information","showlegend":true,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"orientation":"v","width":[0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177],"base":[0,0,0,0,0,0,0],"x":[1993,1998,2003,2008,2013,2018,2023],"y":[11763,13064,13323,14999,15046,17564,17157],"text":["Year: 1993 County: Lane Industry: Leisure and hospitality Sector Jobs: 11,763","Year: 1998 County: Lane Industry: Leisure and hospitality Sector Jobs: 13,064","Year: 2003 County: Lane Industry: Leisure and hospitality Sector Jobs: 13,323","Year: 2008 County: Lane Industry: Leisure and hospitality Sector Jobs: 14,999","Year: 2013 County: Lane Industry: Leisure and hospitality Sector Jobs: 15,046","Year: 2018 County: Lane Industry: Leisure and hospitality Sector Jobs: 17,564","Year: 2023 County: Lane Industry: Leisure and hospitality Sector Jobs: 17,157"],"type":"bar","textposition":"none","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(0,193,167,1)","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"transparent"}},"name":"Leisure and hospitality","legendgroup":"Leisure and hospitality","showlegend":true,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"orientation":"v","width":[0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177],"base":[0,0,0,0,0,0,0],"x":[1993.409090909091,1998.409090909091,2003.409090909091,2008.409090909091,2013.409090909091,2018.409090909091,2023.409090909091],"y":[16287,20054,18557,17665,12575,14194,14644],"text":["Year: 1993 County: Lane Industry: Manufacturing Sector Jobs: 16,287","Year: 1998 County: Lane Industry: Manufacturing Sector Jobs: 20,054","Year: 2003 County: Lane Industry: Manufacturing Sector Jobs: 18,557","Year: 2008 County: Lane Industry: Manufacturing Sector Jobs: 17,665","Year: 2013 County: Lane Industry: Manufacturing Sector Jobs: 12,575","Year: 2018 County: Lane Industry: Manufacturing Sector Jobs: 14,194","Year: 2023 County: Lane Industry: Manufacturing Sector Jobs: 14,644"],"type":"bar","textposition":"none","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(0,186,222,1)","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"transparent"}},"name":"Manufacturing","legendgroup":"Manufacturing","showlegend":true,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"orientation":"v","width":[0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177],"base":[0,0,0,0,0,0,0],"x":[1993.8181818181818,1998.8181818181818,2003.8181818181818,2008.8181818181818,2013.8181818181818,2018.8181818181818,2023.8181818181818],"y":[2390,2341,2248,1984,2202,2360,2484],"text":["Year: 1993 County: Lane Industry: Natural resources and mining Sector Jobs: 2,390","Year: 1998 County: Lane Industry: Natural resources and mining Sector Jobs: 2,341","Year: 2003 County: Lane Industry: Natural resources and mining Sector Jobs: 2,248","Year: 2008 County: Lane Industry: Natural resources and mining Sector Jobs: 1,984","Year: 2013 County: Lane Industry: Natural resources and mining Sector Jobs: 2,202","Year: 2018 County: Lane Industry: Natural resources and mining Sector Jobs: 2,360","Year: 2023 County: Lane Industry: Natural resources and mining Sector Jobs: 2,484"],"type":"bar","textposition":"none","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(0,166,255,1)","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"transparent"}},"name":"Natural resources and mining","legendgroup":"Natural resources and mining","showlegend":true,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"orientation":"v","width":[0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177],"base":[0,0,0,0,0,0,0],"x":[1994.2272727272727,1999.2272727272727,2004.2272727272727,2009.2272727272727,2014.2272727272727,2019.2272727272727,2024.2272727272727],"y":[10268,13692,14758,15605,14805,18191,17459],"text":["Year: 1993 County: Lane Industry: Professional and business services Sector Jobs: 10,268","Year: 1998 County: Lane Industry: Professional and business services Sector Jobs: 13,692","Year: 2003 County: Lane Industry: Professional and business services Sector Jobs: 14,758","Year: 2008 County: Lane Industry: Professional and business services Sector Jobs: 15,605","Year: 2013 County: Lane Industry: Professional and business services Sector Jobs: 14,805","Year: 2018 County: Lane Industry: Professional and business services Sector Jobs: 18,191","Year: 2023 County: Lane Industry: Professional and business services Sector Jobs: 17,459"],"type":"bar","textposition":"none","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(179,133,255,1)","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"transparent"}},"name":"Professional and business services","legendgroup":"Professional and business 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utilities Sector Jobs: 29,872","Year: 2023 County: Lane Industry: Trade, transportation, and utilities Sector Jobs: 29,332"],"type":"bar","textposition":"none","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(239,103,235,1)","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"transparent"}},"name":"Trade, transportation, and utilities","legendgroup":"Trade, transportation, and utilities","showlegend":true,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"orientation":"v","width":[0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177],"base":[0,0,0,0,0,0,0],"x":[1995.0454545454545,2000.0454545454545,2005.0454545454545,2010.0454545454545,2015.0454545454545,2020.0454545454545,2025.0454545454545],"y":[4287,5401,5406,5431,5252,6683,5415],"text":["Year: 1993 County: Lane Industry: Unclassified Sector Jobs: 4,287","Year: 1998 County: Lane Industry: Unclassified Sector Jobs: 5,401","Year: 2003 County: Lane Industry: Unclassified Sector Jobs: 5,406","Year: 2008 County: Lane Industry: Unclassified Sector Jobs: 5,431","Year: 2013 County: Lane Industry: Unclassified Sector Jobs: 5,252","Year: 2018 County: Lane Industry: Unclassified Sector Jobs: 6,683","Year: 2023 County: Lane Industry: Unclassified Sector Jobs: 5,415"],"type":"bar","textposition":"none","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(255,99,182,1)","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"transparent"}},"name":"Unclassified","legendgroup":"Unclassified","showlegend":true,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null}],"layout":{"margin":{"t":47.614777916147794,"r":9.2984640929846432,"b":47.422166874221681,"l":77.177251971772549},"plot_bgcolor":"rgba(255,255,255,1)","paper_bgcolor":"rgba(255,255,255,1)","font":{"color":"rgba(0,0,0,1)","family":"","size":18.596928185969286},"title":{"text":"Lane County Job 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---

# Lane Migration Flows

<div class="plotly html-widget html-fill-item" id="htmlwidget-77068a538c4864349c8d" style="width:750px;height:500px;"></div>
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---

# Lane Population

.pulll-left[
We project that Lane's population will continue to grow, albeit at a slower rate than what has been observed in the past.
]

.pulll-right[
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]

---

# Lane Compositional Changes

.pulll-left[
Historically, population growth has come from natural change and net migration. In the future it will be driven solely by net migration.
]

.pulll-right[
<div class="plotly html-widget html-fill-item" id="htmlwidget-f681d15ba2d95a2f900a" style="width:504px;height:400px;"></div>
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(y) ","x"],"95b766449be9":["function (y) ","x"]},"highlight":{"on":"plotly_click","persistent":false,"dynamic":false,"selectize":false,"opacityDim":0.20000000000000001,"selected":{"opacity":1},"debounce":0},"shinyEvents":["plotly_hover","plotly_click","plotly_selected","plotly_relayout","plotly_brushed","plotly_brushing","plotly_clickannotation","plotly_doubleclick","plotly_deselect","plotly_afterplot","plotly_sunburstclick"],"base_url":"https://plot.ly"},"evals":[],"jsHooks":[]}</script>
]

---

# Lane Births

.pulll-left[
Birth numbers are low for Lane County, and will continue to decline in the future as fertilty rates decrease.
]

.pulll-right[
<div class="plotly html-widget html-fill-item" id="htmlwidget-035362f2d5cd9e76d37b" style="width:504px;height:400px;"></div>
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2,976"],"type":"bar","textposition":"none","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(165,223,249,1)","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"transparent"}},"showlegend":false,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"x":[7.5,7.5],"y":[-184.08000000000001,3865.6799999999998],"text":"","type":"scatter","mode":"lines","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"rgba(0,0,0,1)","dash":"dot"},"hoveron":"points","showlegend":false,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"showlegend":false,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null}],"layout":{"margin":{"t":47.614777916147794,"r":9.2984640929846432,"b":47.422166874221681,"l":69.73848069738483},"plot_bgcolor":"rgba(255,255,255,1)","paper_bgcolor":"rgba(255,255,255,1)","font":{"color":"rgba(0,0,0,1)","family":"","size":18.596928185969286},"title":{"text":"Lane Birth 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]

---

# Lane Deaths

.pulll-right[
<div class="plotly html-widget html-fill-item" id="htmlwidget-1756ccd51e21762a0ab8" style="width:504px;height:400px;"></div>
<script type="application/json" data-for="htmlwidget-1756ccd51e21762a0ab8">{"x":{"data":[{"orientation":"v","width":[0.89999999999999991,0.90000000000000013,0.90000000000000036,0.90000000000000036,0.90000000000000036,0.90000000000000036,0.90000000000000036,0.89999999999999947,0.89999999999999858,0.89999999999999858,0.89999999999999858,0.89999999999999858,0.89999999999999858],"base":[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0],"x":[1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13],"y":[2428.25,2750.1999999999998,2897.1999999999998,3074,3290,3659.4000000000001,4393.25,4273.7045021380163,4733.0807328673181,5155.9015852897264,5364.3253317544459,5389.9853699833766,5360.4351590298575],"text":["Year: 1990-1994 Annual Deaths: 2,428","Year: 1995-1999 Annual Deaths: 2,750","Year: 2000-2004 Annual Deaths: 2,897","Year: 2005-2009 Annual Deaths: 3,074","Year: 2010-2014 Annual Deaths: 3,290","Year: 2015-2019 Annual Deaths: 3,659","Year: 2020-2024 Annual Deaths: 4,393","Year: 2025-2029 Annual Deaths: 4,274","Year: 2030-2034 Annual Deaths: 4,733","Year: 2035-2039 Annual Deaths: 5,156","Year: 2040-2044 Annual Deaths: 5,364","Year: 2045-2049 Annual Deaths: 5,390","Year: 2050-2054 Annual Deaths: 5,360"],"type":"bar","textposition":"none","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(101,3,96,1)","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"transparent"}},"showlegend":false,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"x":[7.5,7.5],"y":[-269.49926849916886,5659.4846384825451],"text":"","type":"scatter","mode":"lines","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"rgba(0,0,0,1)","dash":"dot"},"hoveron":"points","showlegend":false,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"showlegend":false,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null}],"layout":{"margin":{"t":47.614777916147794,"r":9.2984640929846432,"b":47.422166874221681,"l":69.73848069738483},"plot_bgcolor":"rgba(255,255,255,1)","paper_bgcolor":"rgba(255,255,255,1)","font":{"color":"rgba(0,0,0,1)","family":"","size":18.596928185969286},"title":{"text":"Lane Death 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]

---

# Lane Life Expectancy & TFR

---

# Population Pyramids

.pulll-left[
Lane's population age structure will continue to be heavily influenced by the college age population. 
]

.pulll-right[
<div class="plotly html-widget html-fill-item" id="htmlwidget-4608db12c31bbc4fab5c" style="width:504px;height:400px;"></div>
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2020 Type: Estimate Sex: Female Age: 0-4 Population: 8,386","Year: 2020 Type: Estimate Sex: Female Age: 5-9 Population: 9,217","Year: 2020 Type: Estimate Sex: Female Age: 10-14 Population: 9,972","Year: 2020 Type: Estimate Sex: Female Age: 15-19 Population: 12,570","Year: 2020 Type: Estimate Sex: Female Age: 20-24 Population: 17,581","Year: 2020 Type: Estimate Sex: Female Age: 25-29 Population: 12,638","Year: 2020 Type: Estimate Sex: Female Age: 30-34 Population: 11,633","Year: 2020 Type: Estimate Sex: Female Age: 35-39 Population: 12,136","Year: 2020 Type: Estimate Sex: Female Age: 40-44 Population: 11,549","Year: 2020 Type: Estimate Sex: Female Age: 45-49 Population: 10,534","Year: 2020 Type: Estimate Sex: Female Age: 50-54 Population: 10,543","Year: 2020 Type: Estimate Sex: Female Age: 55-59 Population: 12,151","Year: 2020 Type: Estimate Sex: Female Age: 60-64 Population: 13,366","Year: 2020 Type: Estimate Sex: Female Age: 65-69 Population: 13,665","Year: 2020 Type: Estimate Sex: Female Age: 70-74 Population: 11,212","Year: 2020 Type: Estimate Sex: Female Age: 75-79 Population: 7,143","Year: 2020 Type: Estimate Sex: Female Age: 80-84 Population: 4,460","Year: 2020 Type: Estimate Sex: Female Age: 85+ Population: 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2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 0-4 Population: 7,473","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 5-9 Population: 8,448","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 10-14 Population: 9,611","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 15-19 Population: 13,215","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 20-24 Population: 18,123","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 25-29 Population: 13,305","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 30-34 Population: 9,098","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 35-39 Population: 12,660","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 40-44 Population: 12,602","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 45-49 Population: 12,752","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 50-54 Population: 11,496","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 55-59 Population: 10,868","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 60-64 Population: 10,802","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 65-69 Population: 12,182","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 70-74 Population: 12,730","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 75-79 Population: 11,399","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 80-84 Population: 7,725","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 85+ Population: 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2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 0-4 Population: 7,602","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 5-9 Population: 8,417","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 10-14 Population: 9,168","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 15-19 Population: 12,970","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 20-24 Population: 18,673","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 25-29 Population: 14,270","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 30-34 Population: 11,462","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 35-39 Population: 12,156","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 40-44 Population: 12,534","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 45-49 Population: 12,576","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 50-54 Population: 11,507","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 55-59 Population: 14,279","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 60-64 Population: 13,520","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 65-69 Population: 13,101","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 70-74 Population: 11,409","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 75-79 Population: 9,823","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 80-84 Population: 8,163","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 85+ Population: 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1990 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 0-4 Population: 9,969","Year: 1990 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 5-9 Population: 10,369","Year: 1990 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 10-14 Population: 10,256","Year: 1990 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 15-19 Population: 10,212","Year: 1990 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 20-24 Population: 11,818","Year: 1990 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 25-29 Population: 10,502","Year: 1990 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 30-34 Population: 11,136","Year: 1990 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 35-39 Population: 12,273","Year: 1990 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 40-44 Population: 11,331","Year: 1990 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 45-49 Population: 8,130","Year: 1990 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 50-54 Population: 6,325","Year: 1990 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 55-59 Population: 5,193","Year: 1990 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 60-64 Population: 5,299","Year: 1990 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 65-69 Population: 5,330","Year: 1990 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 70-74 Population: 4,373","Year: 1990 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 75-79 Population: 3,104","Year: 1990 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 80-84 Population: 1,796","Year: 1990 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 85+ Population: 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2020 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 0-4 Population: 8,917","Year: 2020 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 5-9 Population: 9,953","Year: 2020 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 10-14 Population: 10,484","Year: 2020 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 15-19 Population: 12,609","Year: 2020 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 20-24 Population: 17,344","Year: 2020 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 25-29 Population: 13,407","Year: 2020 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 30-34 Population: 12,325","Year: 2020 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 35-39 Population: 12,316","Year: 2020 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 40-44 Population: 11,905","Year: 2020 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 45-49 Population: 10,920","Year: 2020 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 50-54 Population: 10,915","Year: 2020 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 55-59 Population: 11,417","Year: 2020 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 60-64 Population: 11,970","Year: 2020 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 65-69 Population: 12,142","Year: 2020 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 70-74 Population: 10,229","Year: 2020 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 75-79 Population: 6,236","Year: 2020 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 80-84 Population: 3,594","Year: 2020 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 85+ Population: 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2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Male Age: 0-4 Population: 7,824","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Male Age: 5-9 Population: 9,024","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Male Age: 10-14 Population: 10,386","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Male Age: 15-19 Population: 13,660","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Male Age: 20-24 Population: 17,517","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Male Age: 25-29 Population: 13,174","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Male Age: 30-34 Population: 9,857","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Male Age: 35-39 Population: 13,046","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Male Age: 40-44 Population: 12,922","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Male Age: 45-49 Population: 12,848","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Male Age: 50-54 Population: 11,743","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Male Age: 55-59 Population: 11,015","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Male Age: 60-64 Population: 10,521","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Male Age: 65-69 Population: 10,742","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Male Age: 70-74 Population: 10,559","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Male Age: 75-79 Population: 9,403","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Male Age: 80-84 Population: 6,206","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Male Age: 85+ Population: 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---

# Lane Race and Ethnicity

.pulll-left[
Lane's non-White population will continue to grow more quickly than the White population.
]

.pulll-right[
<div class="plotly html-widget html-fill-item" id="htmlwidget-8c6682fa36af8d21c5b8" style="width:504px;height:400px;"></div>
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]

---

# Lane UGB Population Changes

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2,766"],"type":"scatter","mode":"markers","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(248,118,109,1)","opacity":1,"size":5.6692913385826778,"symbol":"circle","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"rgba(248,118,109,1)"}},"hoveron":"points","name":"Coburg","legendgroup":"Coburg","showlegend":false,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"x":[1990,2000,2010,2020,2030,2040,2050,2060,2070],"y":[7947.9102868715836,8939.1055441281587,10170.130312855426,11175,11551.7049620485,11434.608948644358,11409.630445244407,11619.79594967939,12009.400610596096],"text":["Type: Estimate UGB: Cottage Grove Year: 1990 Population: 7,948","Type: Estimate UGB: Cottage Grove Year: 2000 Population: 8,939","Type: Estimate UGB: Cottage Grove Year: 2010 Population: 10,170","Type: Estimate UGB: Cottage Grove Year: 2020 Population: 11,175","Type: Forecast UGB: Cottage Grove Year: 2030 Population: 11,552","Type: Forecast UGB: Cottage Grove Year: 2040 Population: 11,435","Type: Forecast UGB: Cottage Grove Year: 2050 Population: 11,410","Type: Forecast UGB: Cottage Grove Year: 2060 Population: 11,620","Type: Forecast UGB: Cottage Grove Year: 2070 Population: 12,009"],"type":"scatter","mode":"markers","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(225,138,0,1)","opacity":1,"size":5.6692913385826778,"symbol":"circle","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"rgba(225,138,0,1)"}},"hoveron":"points","name":"Cottage Grove","legendgroup":"Cottage Grove","showlegend":false,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"x":[1990,2000,2010,2020,2030,2040,2050,2060,2070],"y":[2705.3471168820665,3923.7873178704263,5335.0734433362286,5994,6262.0318633392972,6612.0017269499858,7049.3573558521439,7507.4210564688692,7940.2710076380054],"text":["Type: Estimate UGB: Creswell Year: 1990 Population: 2,705","Type: Estimate UGB: Creswell Year: 2000 Population: 3,924","Type: Estimate UGB: Creswell Year: 2010 Population: 5,335","Type: Estimate UGB: Creswell Year: 2020 Population: 5,994","Type: Forecast UGB: Creswell Year: 2030 Population: 6,262","Type: Forecast UGB: Creswell Year: 2040 Population: 6,612","Type: Forecast UGB: Creswell Year: 2050 Population: 7,049","Type: Forecast UGB: Creswell Year: 2060 Population: 7,507","Type: Forecast UGB: Creswell Year: 2070 Population: 7,940"],"type":"scatter","mode":"markers","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(190,156,0,1)","opacity":1,"size":5.6692913385826778,"symbol":"circle","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"rgba(190,156,0,1)"}},"hoveron":"points","name":"Creswell","legendgroup":"Creswell","showlegend":false,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"x":[1990,2000,2010,2020,2030,2040,2050,2060,2070],"y":[1009.8663894809594,1183.1601451862605,1264.7413338168276,1422,1473.8217553779723,1463.7030970555611,1464.8721063472713,1495.7386452482394,1549.2066896353649],"text":["Type: Estimate UGB: Dunes City Year: 1990 Population: 1,010","Type: Estimate UGB: Dunes City Year: 2000 Population: 1,183","Type: Estimate UGB: Dunes City Year: 2010 Population: 1,265","Type: Estimate UGB: Dunes City Year: 2020 Population: 1,422","Type: Forecast UGB: Dunes City Year: 2030 Population: 1,474","Type: Forecast UGB: Dunes City Year: 2040 Population: 1,464","Type: Forecast UGB: Dunes City Year: 2050 Population: 1,465","Type: Forecast UGB: Dunes City Year: 2060 Population: 1,496","Type: Forecast UGB: Dunes City Year: 2070 Population: 1,549"],"type":"scatter","mode":"markers","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(140,171,0,1)","opacity":1,"size":5.6692913385826778,"symbol":"circle","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"rgba(140,171,0,1)"}},"hoveron":"points","name":"Dunes City","legendgroup":"Dunes 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251,674"],"type":"scatter","mode":"markers","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(36,183,0,1)","opacity":1,"size":5.6692913385826778,"symbol":"circle","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"rgba(36,183,0,1)"}},"hoveron":"points","name":"Eugene","legendgroup":"Eugene","showlegend":false,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"x":[1990,2000,2010,2020,2030,2040,2050,2060,2070],"y":[6080.488471589626,8740.6971967170466,10227.039922902881,11342,11659.724574474851,11601.792708058982,11624.953515368556,11875.46589435663,12297.255868356009],"text":["Type: Estimate UGB: Florence Year: 1990 Population: 6,080","Type: Estimate UGB: Florence Year: 2000 Population: 8,741","Type: Estimate UGB: Florence Year: 2010 Population: 10,227","Type: Estimate UGB: Florence Year: 2020 Population: 11,342","Type: Forecast UGB: Florence Year: 2030 Population: 11,660","Type: Forecast UGB: Florence Year: 2040 Population: 11,602","Type: Forecast UGB: Florence Year: 2050 Population: 11,625","Type: Forecast UGB: Florence Year: 2060 Population: 11,875","Type: Forecast UGB: Florence Year: 2070 Population: 12,297"],"type":"scatter","mode":"markers","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(0,190,112,1)","opacity":1,"size":5.6692913385826778,"symbol":"circle","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"rgba(0,190,112,1)"}},"hoveron":"points","name":"Florence","legendgroup":"Florence","showlegend":false,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"x":[1990,2000,2010,2020,2030,2040,2050,2060,2070],"y":[4598.1190925559031,5875.181064261832,6077.9883527801485,7606,8462.9849034825147,8896.0193918491041,9424.1011861839761,9979.2801964871633,10500.827315190429],"text":["Type: Estimate UGB: Junction City Year: 1990 Population: 4,598","Type: Estimate UGB: Junction City Year: 2000 Population: 5,875","Type: Estimate UGB: Junction City Year: 2010 Population: 6,078","Type: Estimate UGB: Junction City Year: 2020 Population: 7,606","Type: Forecast UGB: Junction City Year: 2030 Population: 8,463","Type: Forecast UGB: Junction City Year: 2040 Population: 8,896","Type: Forecast UGB: Junction City Year: 2050 Population: 9,424","Type: Forecast UGB: Junction City Year: 2060 Population: 9,979","Type: Forecast UGB: Junction City Year: 2070 Population: 10,501"],"type":"scatter","mode":"markers","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(0,193,171,1)","opacity":1,"size":5.6692913385826778,"symbol":"circle","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"rgba(0,193,171,1)"}},"hoveron":"points","name":"Junction City","legendgroup":"Junction City","showlegend":false,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"x":[1990,2000,2010,2020,2030,2040,2050,2060,2070],"y":[773.41489343915862,847.19294353457201,1044.9928395640125,1196,1342.6657059629008,1378.6015722346424,1413.7709027908184,1465.3702137325261,1526.4058406806337],"text":["Type: Estimate UGB: Lowell Year: 1990 Population: 773","Type: Estimate UGB: Lowell Year: 2000 Population: 847","Type: Estimate UGB: Lowell Year: 2010 Population: 1,045","Type: Estimate UGB: Lowell Year: 2020 Population: 1,196","Type: Forecast UGB: Lowell Year: 2030 Population: 1,343","Type: Forecast UGB: Lowell Year: 2040 Population: 1,379","Type: Forecast UGB: Lowell Year: 2050 Population: 1,414","Type: Forecast UGB: Lowell Year: 2060 Population: 1,465","Type: Forecast UGB: Lowell Year: 2070 Population: 1,526"],"type":"scatter","mode":"markers","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(0,187,218,1)","opacity":1,"size":5.6692913385826778,"symbol":"circle","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"rgba(0,187,218,1)"}},"hoveron":"points","name":"Lowell","legendgroup":"Lowell","showlegend":false,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"x":[1990,2000,2010,2020,2030,2040,2050,2060,2070],"y":[3204.7502766337066,3193.3934014898173,3218.7179448978654,3328,3380.9382605178221,3461.978462775257,3549.6719732621127,3687.9535373254057,3859.7227140965638],"text":["Type: Estimate UGB: Oakridge Year: 1990 Population: 3,205","Type: Estimate UGB: Oakridge Year: 2000 Population: 3,193","Type: Estimate UGB: Oakridge Year: 2010 Population: 3,219","Type: Estimate UGB: Oakridge Year: 2020 Population: 3,328","Type: Forecast UGB: Oakridge Year: 2030 Population: 3,381","Type: Forecast UGB: Oakridge Year: 2040 Population: 3,462","Type: Forecast UGB: Oakridge Year: 2050 Population: 3,550","Type: Forecast UGB: Oakridge Year: 2060 Population: 3,688","Type: Forecast UGB: Oakridge Year: 2070 Population: 3,860"],"type":"scatter","mode":"markers","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(0,172,252,1)","opacity":1,"size":5.6692913385826778,"symbol":"circle","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"rgba(0,172,252,1)"}},"hoveron":"points","name":"Oakridge","legendgroup":"Oakridge","showlegend":false,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"x":[1990,2000,2010,2020,2030,2040,2050,2060,2070],"y":[54244.363207110837,61971.583824384863,67729.445908435417,70564,73779.064670071355,75580.906797376971,77463.805704884813,80381.974523082477,83959.422473215105],"text":["Type: Estimate UGB: Springfield Year: 1990 Population: 54,244","Type: Estimate UGB: Springfield Year: 2000 Population: 61,972","Type: Estimate UGB: Springfield Year: 2010 Population: 67,729","Type: Estimate UGB: Springfield Year: 2020 Population: 70,564","Type: Forecast UGB: Springfield Year: 2030 Population: 73,779","Type: Forecast UGB: Springfield Year: 2040 Population: 75,581","Type: Forecast UGB: Springfield Year: 2050 Population: 77,464","Type: Forecast UGB: Springfield Year: 2060 Population: 80,382","Type: Forecast UGB: Springfield Year: 2070 Population: 83,959"],"type":"scatter","mode":"markers","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(139,147,255,1)","opacity":1,"size":5.6692913385826778,"symbol":"circle","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"rgba(139,147,255,1)"}},"hoveron":"points","name":"Springfield","legendgroup":"Springfield","showlegend":false,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"x":[1990,2000,2010,2020,2030,2040,2050,2060,2070],"y":[2511.6558913868821,2699.2275175114423,4556.1487806361365,5214,5461.2028737073515,5684.2642345645718,5898.7498543375405,6174.5765685674633,6481.6229006256381],"text":["Type: Estimate UGB: Veneta Year: 1990 Population: 2,512","Type: Estimate UGB: Veneta Year: 2000 Population: 2,699","Type: Estimate UGB: Veneta Year: 2010 Population: 4,556","Type: Estimate UGB: Veneta Year: 2020 Population: 5,214","Type: Forecast UGB: Veneta Year: 2030 Population: 5,461","Type: Forecast UGB: Veneta Year: 2040 Population: 5,684","Type: Forecast UGB: Veneta Year: 2050 Population: 5,899","Type: Forecast UGB: Veneta Year: 2060 Population: 6,175","Type: Forecast UGB: Veneta Year: 2070 Population: 6,482"],"type":"scatter","mode":"markers","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(213,117,254,1)","opacity":1,"size":5.6692913385826778,"symbol":"circle","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"rgba(213,117,254,1)"}},"hoveron":"points","name":"Veneta","legendgroup":"Veneta","showlegend":false,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"x":[1990,2000,2010,2020,2030,2040,2050,2060,2070],"y":[233.51147744013903,264.62779585405315,231.55841332961029,270,276.25604954673145,277.65720163927284,280.57770121465944,288.55292599803738,300.24757684105919],"text":["Type: Estimate UGB: Westfir Year: 1990 Population: 234","Type: Estimate UGB: Westfir Year: 2000 Population: 265","Type: Estimate UGB: Westfir Year: 2010 Population: 232","Type: Estimate UGB: Westfir Year: 2020 Population: 270","Type: Forecast UGB: Westfir Year: 2030 Population: 276","Type: Forecast UGB: Westfir Year: 2040 Population: 278","Type: Forecast UGB: Westfir Year: 2050 Population: 281","Type: Forecast UGB: Westfir Year: 2060 Population: 289","Type: Forecast UGB: Westfir Year: 2070 Population: 300"],"type":"scatter","mode":"markers","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(249,98,221,1)","opacity":1,"size":5.6692913385826778,"symbol":"circle","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"rgba(249,98,221,1)"}},"hoveron":"points","name":"Westfir","legendgroup":"Westfir","showlegend":false,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"x":[1990,2000,2010,2020,2030,2040,2050,2060,2070],"y":[62936.428202290757,63747.149035292699,63463.925136375823,65468,61683.495697361963,60037.107525067215,58534.478933812738,57851.386243110144,57618.158977151004],"text":["Type: Estimate UGB: Outside UGB Areas 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---
class: center, middle, inverse

# Lane UGB Forecasts

---

# Lane UGBs: Cottage Grove in Context

.pux-right[
<img src="Lane_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-18-1.png" width="800px" height="400px" />
]

.pux-left[
<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Metric </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 1980 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2000 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2020 </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Pop 65+ </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 13.14% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 16.03% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 16.93% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Units </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2,744 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 3,430 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 4,251 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Occupancy </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 93.84% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 95.16% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 95.93% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons Per Household </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.72 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.54 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.54 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Household Income </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $61,681 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $56,862 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $74,840 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Employment Rate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 88.56% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 91.27% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 93.92% </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]
---
# Cottage Grove Beyond the Census

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---

# Lane County: Cottage Grove UGB Boundaries

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---

# Cottage Grove UGB Pop Forecast

---

# Cottage Grove UGB Pop Forecast

---

# Lane UGBs: Creswell in Context

.pux-right[
<img src="Lane_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-24-1.png" width="800px" height="400px" />
]

.pux-left[
<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Metric </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 1980 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2000 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2020 </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Pop 65+ </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 10.00% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 11.04% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 15.76% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Units </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 670 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 1,343 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2,177 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Occupancy </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 92.84% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 94.64% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 97.20% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons Per Household </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.63 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.77 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.62 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Household Income </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $47,240 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $63,607 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $105,795 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Employment Rate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 88.38% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 90.37% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 99.00% </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]
---
# Creswell Beyond the Census

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---

# Lane County: Creswell UGB Boundaries

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---

# Creswell UGB Pop Forecast

---

# Creswell UGB Pop Forecast

---

# Lane UGBs: Dunes City in Context

.pux-right[
<img src="Lane_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-30-1.png" width="800px" height="400px" />
]

.pux-left[
<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Metric </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 1980 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2000 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2020 </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Pop 65+ </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 21.98% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 27.32% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 43.56% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Units </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 554 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 705 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 862 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Occupancy </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 83.03% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 79.15% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 79.12% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons Per Household </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.44 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.22 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.09 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Household Income </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $61,451 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $73,035 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $88,311 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Employment Rate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 90.49% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 93.50% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 98.53% </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]
---
# Dunes City Beyond the Census

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---

# Lane County: Dunes City UGB Boundaries

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---

# Dunes City UGB Pop Forecast

---

# Dunes City UGB Pop Forecast

---

# Lane UGBs: Eugene in Context

.pux-right[
<img src="Lane_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-36-1.png" width="800px" height="400px" />
]

.pux-left[
<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Metric </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 1980 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2000 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2020 </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Pop 65+ </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 9.47% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 12.08% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 17.17% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Units </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 44,942 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 61,444 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 77,395 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Occupancy </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 94.17% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 94.57% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 95.01% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons Per Household </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.36 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.27 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.25 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Household Income </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $58,387 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $66,964 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $76,409 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Employment Rate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 91.60% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 93.77% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 92.89% </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]
---
# Eugene Beyond the Census

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---

# Lane County: Eugene UGB Boundaries

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---

# Eugene UGB Pop Forecast

---

# Eugene UGB Pop Forecast

---

# Lane UGBs: Florence in Context

.pux-right[
<img src="Lane_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-42-1.png" width="800px" height="400px" />
]

.pux-left[
<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Metric </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 1980 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2000 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2020 </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Pop 65+ </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 20.52% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 38.22% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 39.67% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Units </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2,354 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 4,174 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 5,310 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Occupancy </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 76.47% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 85.39% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 87.06% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons Per Household </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.39 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.02 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 1.98 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Household Income </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $52,813 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $56,980 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $71,546 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Employment Rate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 86.89% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 90.09% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 93.38% </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]
---
# Florence Beyond the Census

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---

# Lane County: Florence UGB Boundaries

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---

# Florence UGB Pop Forecast

---

# Florence UGB Pop Forecast

---

# Lane UGBs: Junction City in Context

.pux-right[
<img src="Lane_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-48-1.png" width="800px" height="400px" />
]

.pux-left[
<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Metric </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 1980 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2000 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2020 </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Pop 65+ </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 16.69% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 14.91% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 16.90% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Units </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 1,391 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 1,921 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2,704 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Occupancy </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 90.94% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 94.90% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 96.19% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons Per Household </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.54 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.51 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.54 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Household Income </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $52,868 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $66,025 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $87,507 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Employment Rate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 86.38% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 96.74% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 94.02% </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]
---
# Junction City Beyond the Census

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---

# Lane County: Junction City UGB Boundaries

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---

# Junction City UGB Pop Forecast

---

# Junction City UGB Pop Forecast

---

# Lane UGBs: Lowell in Context

.pux-right[
<img src="Lane_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-54-1.png" width="800px" height="400px" />
]

.pux-left[
<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Metric </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 1980 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2000 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2020 </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Pop 65+ </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 8.02% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 8.17% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 23.83% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Units </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 280 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 342 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 467 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Occupancy </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 85.71% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 92.11% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 93.58% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons Per Household </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.75 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.72 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.74 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Household Income </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $67,442 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $66,378 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $79,707 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Employment Rate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 93.58% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 90.32% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 97.91% </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]
---
# Lowell Beyond the Census

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---

# Lane County: Lowell UGB Boundaries

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---

# Lowell UGB Pop Forecast

---

# Lowell UGB Pop Forecast

---

# Lane UGBs: Oakridge in Context

.pux-right[
<img src="Lane_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-60-1.png" width="800px" height="400px" />
]

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<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Metric </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 1980 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2000 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2020 </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Pop 65+ </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 12.44% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 20.17% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 22.58% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Units </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 1,531 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 1,526 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 1,646 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Occupancy </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 92.82% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 88.14% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 88.94% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons Per Household </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.62 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.34 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.18 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Household Income </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $61,006 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $49,727 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $36,459 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Employment Rate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 81.66% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 90.34% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 76.48% </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
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]
---
# Oakridge Beyond the Census

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---

# Lane County: Oakridge UGB Boundaries

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---

# Oakridge UGB Pop Forecast

---

# Oakridge UGB Pop Forecast

---

# Lane UGBs: Springfield in Context

.pux-right[
<img src="Lane_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-66-1.png" width="800px" height="400px" />
]

.pux-left[
<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Metric </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 1980 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2000 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2020 </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Pop 65+ </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 8.36% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 10.26% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 15.67% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Units </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 17,469 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 21,500 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 25,614 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Occupancy </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 92.58% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 95.41% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 96.68% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons Per Household </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.56 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.55 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.47 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Household Income </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $57,973 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $61,698 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $75,789 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Employment Rate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 86.81% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 91.29% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 93.90% </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]
---
# Springfield Beyond the Census

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---

# Lane County: Springfield UGB Boundaries

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---

# Springfield UGB Pop Forecast

---

# Springfield UGB Pop Forecast

---

# Lane UGBs: Veneta in Context

.pux-right[
<img src="Lane_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-72-1.png" width="800px" height="400px" />
]

.pux-left[
<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Metric </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 1980 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2000 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2020 </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Pop 65+ </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 9.47% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 7.48% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 21.73% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Units </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 914 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 1,015 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 1,979 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Occupancy </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 94.42% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 95.17% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 97.37% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons Per Household </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.84 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.85 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.69 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Household Income </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $58,973 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $69,721 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $73,108 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Employment Rate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 85.08% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 89.17% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 95.15% </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]
---
# Veneta Beyond the Census

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---

# Lane County: Veneta UGB Boundaries

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---

# Veneta UGB Pop Forecast

---

# Veneta UGB Pop Forecast

---

# Lane UGBs: Westfir in Context

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]

.pux-left[
<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Metric </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 1980 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2000 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2020 </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Pop 65+ </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 8.97% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 13.41% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 34.36% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Units </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 104 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 106 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 129 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Occupancy </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 97.12% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 94.34% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 87.60% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons Per Household </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 3.09 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.76 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.29 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Household Income </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $78,203 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $59,831 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $76,122 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Employment Rate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 68.63% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 95.31% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 87.59% </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]

---
# Westfir Beyond the Census

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---

# Lane County: Westfir UGB Boundaries

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# Westfir UGB Pop Forecast

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# Westfir UGB Pop Forecast

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class: center

# Comments or Questions?

## Contact PSUPRC
Email: [askprc@pdx.edu](mailto:askprc@pdx.edu)  
Telephone: 503-725-3922

## Preliminary Population Projections
https://www.pdx.edu/population-research/population-forecasts