Oregon Population Forecast Program

.title[
# Oregon Population Forecast Program
]
.subtitle[
## Proposal Forecasts for Counties & UGBs
]
.author[
### Lincoln County
]
.institute[
### Portland State University Population Research Center
]
.date[
### February 2025
]

---

# Comments or Questions?

## Contact PSUPRC
Email: [askprc@pdx.edu](mailto:askprc@pdx.edu)  
Telephone: 503-725-3922

## Preliminary Population Projections
https://www.pdx.edu/population-research/population-forecasts

---

# PSUPRC Project Team

**Huda Alkitkat, PhD.**  
*Population Estimates Manager*

**Seth Dowden**  
*Research Assistant*

**Neal Marquez, PhD.**  
*Population Forecast Manager*

**Gilbert Montcho, PhD.**  
*Demographic & Labor Econ Analyst*

**Scott Nordstrom, PhD.**  
*Post-Doctoral Researcher*
]

**Aja Sutton, PhD.**  
*Post-Doctoral Researcher*

**David Swanson, PhD.**  
*Research Associate*

**Suniva Thangaraj**  
*Program Manager*

**Joshua Wilde, PhD.**  
*Research Scientist*
]

---

# Lincoln County Outline

- Introduction
- Updates
- County Overview
- UGB Forecasts

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---

# PSUPRC OPFP Population Forecasts

.puz-left[
- For the purposes of land use planning PSUPRC generates population forecasts
- For counties, urban growth boundaries (UGBs), and areas outside UGBs
- These forecasts must
    - Be updated at least every four years
    - Cover a 50 year forecast horizon
    - Include most up to date data
    - Allow for public input/objections
    - Methods & results publicly available

]

.puz-right[
![Oregon Seal](https://sos.oregon.gov/PublishingImages/Oregon-State-Seal-Navy-Gold.png)
]

---
# Oregon Population Forecast Program Cycle

![Program Cycle](program_cycle.png)

---
# Methods Review: Cohort Component Method

.pux-left[
- For Counties
- Births = Females 15-50 * Birth Rate
  - Both number of and rate of births in OR decreasing
- Deaths = All Population * Death Rate
  - While number of deaths are increasing rate of deaths decreasing
- Migration = Past migration events
  - Average of past migration is most likely scenario moving forward

]

---
# Methods Review: Housing Unit Method

.pull-left[
- For UGBs
- `$P_t = P_{t-1} + \Delta HU*PPH*OCC$`
- `$PPH$`: Persons per household
  - Estimated from most recent census data
- `$OCC$`: Occupancy Rate
  - Estimated from most recent census data
- `$\Delta HU$`: annual change in housing units
  - Modeled based on past housing unit growth trends

]

---
# After this meeting

- Email for further follow up  
- March 15, 2025 forecast discussion period ends
- Chance to formally appeal until May 5, 2025
  - Will review appeals in the following week
- No further changes will be made after May 15, 2025
- Reports and data tables will be available June 15, 2025

---
class: center, middle, inverse

# Updates

---
# Survey and Preliminary Meeting Feedback

- Received housing and general survey responses from over 20 organizations
- Updated GIS UGB boundary lines 
- Account for large public works alter housing development trajectories
- Incorporate group quarter expansions
- Adjusted housing unit productions
- Housing build moratoriums
- General concerns
  - Restrictions on development  
  - Access to others responses
  
---
# Incoporation of 2024 Certified Estimates

![Estimates](./pop_est_page.png)

---
# Agreement from US Census Bureau Concerning Oregon's Growth

![Oregonion](./oregonian.png)

---

# Fertility Changes

![Oregonion](./birth_story.png)

---

# Life Expectancy Changes

![lex](./lex_recent.png)

# Housing Developments

![housing](./housing_news.png)

---
class: center, middle, inverse

# Lincoln County Forecast

---
# Lincoln County at a Glance

<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Statistic </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Lincoln </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Oregon </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Total Population </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 50,395 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 4,237,256 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Population Aged 0-17 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 16.01% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 20.20% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Population Aged 65+ </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 30.50% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 18.25% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Population non-White </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 15.88% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 23.41% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons per Household </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.19 (32,066 units) </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.48 (1,813,747 units) </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>

---

# Lincoln County Beyond the Census

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---

# Lincoln Employment Changes

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2018 County: Lincoln Industry: Information Sector Jobs: 149","Year: 2023 County: Lincoln Industry: Information Sector Jobs: 120"],"type":"bar","textposition":"none","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(0,189,92,1)","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"transparent"}},"name":"Information","legendgroup":"Information","showlegend":true,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"orientation":"v","width":[0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177],"base":[0,0,0,0,0,0,0],"x":[1993,1998,2003,2008,2013,2018,2023],"y":[3709,4841,4145,4301,4102,4658,4805],"text":["Year: 1993 County: Lincoln Industry: Leisure and hospitality Sector Jobs: 3,709","Year: 1998 County: Lincoln Industry: Leisure and hospitality Sector Jobs: 4,841","Year: 2003 County: Lincoln Industry: Leisure and hospitality Sector Jobs: 4,145","Year: 2008 County: Lincoln Industry: Leisure and hospitality Sector Jobs: 4,301","Year: 2013 County: Lincoln Industry: Leisure and hospitality Sector Jobs: 4,102","Year: 2018 County: Lincoln Industry: Leisure and hospitality Sector Jobs: 4,658","Year: 2023 County: Lincoln Industry: Leisure and hospitality Sector Jobs: 4,805"],"type":"bar","textposition":"none","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(0,193,167,1)","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"transparent"}},"name":"Leisure and hospitality","legendgroup":"Leisure and hospitality","showlegend":true,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"orientation":"v","width":[0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177],"base":[0,0,0,0,0,0,0],"x":[1993.409090909091,1998.409090909091,2003.409090909091,2008.409090909091,2013.409090909091,2018.409090909091,2023.409090909091],"y":[1372,1109,1121,1096,1078,1098,1043],"text":["Year: 1993 County: Lincoln Industry: Manufacturing Sector Jobs: 1,372","Year: 1998 County: Lincoln Industry: Manufacturing Sector Jobs: 1,109","Year: 2003 County: Lincoln Industry: Manufacturing Sector Jobs: 1,121","Year: 2008 County: Lincoln Industry: Manufacturing Sector Jobs: 1,096","Year: 2013 County: Lincoln Industry: Manufacturing Sector Jobs: 1,078","Year: 2018 County: Lincoln Industry: Manufacturing Sector Jobs: 1,098","Year: 2023 County: Lincoln Industry: Manufacturing Sector Jobs: 1,043"],"type":"bar","textposition":"none","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(0,186,222,1)","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"transparent"}},"name":"Manufacturing","legendgroup":"Manufacturing","showlegend":true,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"orientation":"v","width":[0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177],"base":[0,0,0,0,0,0,0],"x":[1993.8181818181818,1998.8181818181818,2003.8181818181818,2008.8181818181818,2013.8181818181818,2018.8181818181818,2023.8181818181818],"y":[678,473,321,297,310,306,264],"text":["Year: 1993 County: Lincoln Industry: Natural resources and mining Sector Jobs: 678","Year: 1998 County: Lincoln Industry: Natural resources and mining Sector Jobs: 473","Year: 2003 County: Lincoln Industry: Natural resources and mining Sector Jobs: 321","Year: 2008 County: Lincoln Industry: Natural resources and mining Sector Jobs: 297","Year: 2013 County: Lincoln Industry: Natural resources and mining Sector Jobs: 310","Year: 2018 County: Lincoln Industry: Natural resources and mining Sector Jobs: 306","Year: 2023 County: Lincoln Industry: Natural resources and mining Sector Jobs: 264"],"type":"bar","textposition":"none","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(0,166,255,1)","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"transparent"}},"name":"Natural resources and mining","legendgroup":"Natural resources and mining","showlegend":true,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"orientation":"v","width":[0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177],"base":[0,0,0,0,0,0,0],"x":[1994.2272727272727,1999.2272727272727,2004.2272727272727,2009.2272727272727,2014.2272727272727,2019.2272727272727,2024.2272727272727],"y":[679,851,944,966,990,1055,1095],"text":["Year: 1993 County: Lincoln Industry: Professional and business services Sector Jobs: 679","Year: 1998 County: Lincoln Industry: Professional and business services Sector Jobs: 851","Year: 2003 County: Lincoln Industry: Professional and business services Sector Jobs: 944","Year: 2008 County: Lincoln Industry: Professional and business services Sector Jobs: 966","Year: 2013 County: Lincoln Industry: Professional and business services Sector Jobs: 990","Year: 2018 County: Lincoln Industry: Professional and business services Sector Jobs: 1,055","Year: 2023 County: Lincoln Industry: Professional and business services Sector Jobs: 1,095"],"type":"bar","textposition":"none","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(179,133,255,1)","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"transparent"}},"name":"Professional and business services","legendgroup":"Professional and business 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and utilities Sector Jobs: 3,358","Year: 2023 County: Lincoln Industry: Trade, transportation, and utilities Sector Jobs: 3,218"],"type":"bar","textposition":"none","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(239,103,235,1)","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"transparent"}},"name":"Trade, transportation, and utilities","legendgroup":"Trade, transportation, and utilities","showlegend":true,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"orientation":"v","width":[0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177],"base":[0,0,0,0,0,0,0],"x":[1995.0454545454545,2000.0454545454545,2005.0454545454545,2010.0454545454545,2015.0454545454545,2020.0454545454545,2025.0454545454545],"y":[672,576,619,611,624,634,449],"text":["Year: 1993 County: Lincoln Industry: Unclassified Sector Jobs: 672","Year: 1998 County: Lincoln Industry: Unclassified Sector Jobs: 576","Year: 2003 County: Lincoln Industry: Unclassified Sector Jobs: 619","Year: 2008 County: Lincoln Industry: Unclassified Sector Jobs: 611","Year: 2013 County: Lincoln Industry: Unclassified Sector Jobs: 624","Year: 2018 County: Lincoln Industry: Unclassified Sector Jobs: 634","Year: 2023 County: Lincoln Industry: Unclassified Sector Jobs: 449"],"type":"bar","textposition":"none","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(255,99,182,1)","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"transparent"}},"name":"Unclassified","legendgroup":"Unclassified","showlegend":true,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null}],"layout":{"margin":{"t":47.614777916147794,"r":9.2984640929846432,"b":47.422166874221681,"l":69.73848069738483},"plot_bgcolor":"rgba(255,255,255,1)","paper_bgcolor":"rgba(255,255,255,1)","font":{"color":"rgba(0,0,0,1)","family":"","size":18.596928185969286},"title":{"text":"Lincoln County Job 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---

# Lincoln Migration Flows

<div class="plotly html-widget html-fill-item" id="htmlwidget-dc018267e01e268ffe53" style="width:750px;height:500px;"></div>
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---

# Lincoln Population

.pulll-left[
We project that Lincoln's population will continue to grow, albeit at a slower rate than what has been observed in the past.
]

.pulll-right[
<div class="plotly html-widget html-fill-item" id="htmlwidget-e3a83453cf72dc4851a8" style="width:504px;height:400px;"></div>
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+0.2%"],"type":"bar","textposition":"none","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(109,141,36,1)","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"transparent"}},"showlegend":false,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"orientation":"v","width":[9,9,9,9,9],"base":[0,0,0,0,0],"x":[2030,2040,2050,2060,2070],"y":[52.343554489489797,53.428068044713598,53.571062671669601,53.714430415837803,53.858181843081198],"text":["Type: Previous Forecast Year: 2030 Population: 52,344","Type: Previous Forecast Year: 2040 Population: 53,428","Type: Previous Forecast Year: 2050 Population: 53,571","Type: Previous Forecast Year: 2060 Population: 53,714","Type: Previous Forecast Year: 2070 Population: 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]

---

# Lincoln Compositional Changes

.pulll-left[
Historically, population growth has come from natural change and net migration. In the future it will be driven solely by net migration.
]

.pulll-right[
<div class="plotly html-widget html-fill-item" id="htmlwidget-de57b9032970cf83a8de" style="width:504px;height:400px;"></div>
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]

---

# Lincoln Births

.pulll-left[
Birth numbers are low for Lincoln County, and will continue to decline in the future as fertilty rates decrease.
]

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]

---

# Lincoln Deaths

.pulll-right[
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]

---

# Lincoln Life Expectancy & TFR

---

# Population Pyramids

.pulll-left[
Lincoln's population age structure will continue to be heavily influenced by the college age population. 
]

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2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 0-4 Population: 815","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 5-9 Population: 869","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 10-14 Population: 1,044","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 15-19 Population: 1,188","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 20-24 Population: 1,142","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 25-29 Population: 906","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 30-34 Population: 1,175","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 35-39 Population: 1,353","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 40-44 Population: 1,467","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 45-49 Population: 1,689","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 50-54 Population: 1,662","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 55-59 Population: 1,840","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 60-64 Population: 2,122","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 65-69 Population: 2,672","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 70-74 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2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 0-4 Population: 712","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 5-9 Population: 737","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 10-14 Population: 838","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 15-19 Population: 925","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 20-24 Population: 845","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 25-29 Population: 819","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 30-34 Population: 1,070","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 35-39 Population: 1,309","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 40-44 Population: 1,525","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 45-49 Population: 1,540","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 50-54 Population: 1,897","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 55-59 Population: 2,249","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 60-64 Population: 2,549","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 65-69 Population: 2,855","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 70-74 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1990 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 0-4 Population: 1,259","Year: 1990 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 5-9 Population: 1,413","Year: 1990 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 10-14 Population: 1,328","Year: 1990 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 15-19 Population: 1,023","Year: 1990 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 20-24 Population: 805","Year: 1990 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 25-29 Population: 1,026","Year: 1990 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 30-34 Population: 1,369","Year: 1990 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 35-39 Population: 1,652","Year: 1990 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 40-44 Population: 1,462","Year: 1990 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 45-49 Population: 1,044","Year: 1990 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 50-54 Population: 884","Year: 1990 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 55-59 Population: 907","Year: 1990 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 60-64 Population: 1,131","Year: 1990 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 65-69 Population: 1,298","Year: 1990 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 70-74 Population: 1,043","Year: 1990 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 75-79 Population: 664","Year: 1990 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 80-84 Population: 353","Year: 1990 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 85+ Population: 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2020 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 0-4 Population: 1,061","Year: 2020 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 5-9 Population: 1,223","Year: 2020 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 10-14 Population: 1,252","Year: 2020 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 15-19 Population: 1,214","Year: 2020 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 20-24 Population: 1,035","Year: 2020 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 25-29 Population: 1,124","Year: 2020 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 30-34 Population: 1,135","Year: 2020 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 35-39 Population: 1,347","Year: 2020 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 40-44 Population: 1,299","Year: 2020 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 45-49 Population: 1,284","Year: 2020 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 50-54 Population: 1,386","Year: 2020 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 55-59 Population: 1,724","Year: 2020 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 60-64 Population: 2,228","Year: 2020 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 65-69 Population: 2,575","Year: 2020 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 70-74 Population: 2,113","Year: 2020 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 75-79 Population: 1,288","Year: 2020 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 80-84 Population: 680","Year: 2020 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 85+ Population: 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2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Male Age: 0-4 Population: 891","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Male Age: 5-9 Population: 946","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Male Age: 10-14 Population: 1,126","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Male Age: 15-19 Population: 1,319","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Male Age: 20-24 Population: 1,205","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Male Age: 25-29 Population: 897","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Male Age: 30-34 Population: 1,125","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Male Age: 35-39 Population: 1,364","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Male Age: 40-44 Population: 1,389","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Male Age: 45-49 Population: 1,546","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Male Age: 50-54 Population: 1,543","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Male Age: 55-59 Population: 1,737","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Male Age: 60-64 Population: 1,833","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Male Age: 65-69 Population: 2,275","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Male Age: 70-74 Population: 2,459","Year: 2030 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---

# Lincoln Race and Ethnicity

.pulll-left[
Lincoln's non-White population will continue to grow more quickly than the White population.
]

.pulll-right[
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]

---

# Lincoln UGB Population Changes

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10,842","Type: Forecast UGB: Newport Year: 2030 Population: 11,490","Type: Forecast UGB: Newport Year: 2040 Population: 11,551","Type: Forecast UGB: Newport Year: 2050 Population: 11,459","Type: Forecast UGB: Newport Year: 2060 Population: 11,494","Type: Forecast UGB: Newport Year: 2070 Population: 11,615"],"type":"scatter","mode":"markers","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(124,174,0,1)","opacity":1,"size":5.6692913385826778,"symbol":"circle","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"rgba(124,174,0,1)"}},"hoveron":"points","name":"Newport","legendgroup":"Newport","showlegend":false,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"x":[1990,2000,2010,2020,2030,2040,2050,2060,2070],"y":[912.31832961133023,1133.0991105629471,1311.2480670588773,1321,1383.660666838445,1432.5860472917684,1455.6595337028778,1486.7579994169394,1520.2484259429989],"text":["Type: Estimate UGB: Siletz Year: 1990 Population: 912","Type: Estimate UGB: Siletz Year: 2000 Population: 1,133","Type: Estimate UGB: Siletz Year: 2010 Population: 1,311","Type: Estimate UGB: Siletz Year: 2020 Population: 1,321","Type: Forecast UGB: Siletz Year: 2030 Population: 1,384","Type: Forecast UGB: Siletz Year: 2040 Population: 1,433","Type: Forecast UGB: Siletz Year: 2050 Population: 1,456","Type: Forecast UGB: Siletz Year: 2060 Population: 1,487","Type: Forecast UGB: Siletz Year: 2070 Population: 1,520"],"type":"scatter","mode":"markers","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(0,190,103,1)","opacity":1,"size":5.6692913385826778,"symbol":"circle","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"rgba(0,190,103,1)"}},"hoveron":"points","name":"Siletz","legendgroup":"Siletz","showlegend":false,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"x":[1990,2000,2010,2020,2030,2040,2050,2060,2070],"y":[3430.1609247538277,3641.3428694180866,3729.7476133800592,3847,4044.9043819921553,4089.6974083365976,4077.7084385407679,4108.133936895857,4165.6601235559074],"text":["Type: 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4,166"],"type":"scatter","mode":"markers","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(0,191,196,1)","opacity":1,"size":5.6692913385826778,"symbol":"circle","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"rgba(0,191,196,1)"}},"hoveron":"points","name":"Toledo","legendgroup":"Toledo","showlegend":false,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"x":[1990,2000,2010,2020,2030,2040,2050,2060,2070],"y":[1752.0591786908581,2201.3794161037526,2234.8626179733274,2399,2652.0352783940734,2833.0056130915796,2946.1783330704543,3053.6334694779625,3142.0448777777387],"text":["Type: Estimate UGB: Waldport Year: 1990 Population: 1,752","Type: Estimate UGB: Waldport Year: 2000 Population: 2,201","Type: Estimate UGB: Waldport Year: 2010 Population: 2,235","Type: Estimate UGB: Waldport Year: 2020 Population: 2,399","Type: Forecast UGB: Waldport Year: 2030 Population: 2,652","Type: Forecast UGB: Waldport Year: 2040 Population: 2,833","Type: Forecast UGB: Waldport Year: 2050 Population: 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---
class: center, middle, inverse

# Lincoln UGB Forecasts

---

# Lincoln UGBs: Depoe Bay in Context

.pux-right[
<img src="Lincoln_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-18-1.png" width="800px" height="400px" />
]

.pux-left[
<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Metric </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 1980 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2000 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2020 </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Pop 65+ </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 15.63% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 23.85% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 42.24% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Units </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 611 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 911 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 1,266 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Occupancy </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 56.63% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 64.11% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 58.45% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons Per Household </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.09 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.01 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.04 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Household Income </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $44,355 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $66,155 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $82,854 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Employment Rate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 92.65% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 94.60% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 86.88% </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]
---
# Depoe Bay Beyond the Census

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---

# Lincoln County: Depoe Bay UGB Boundaries

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---

# Depoe Bay UGB Pop Forecast

---

# Depoe Bay UGB Pop Forecast

---

# Lincoln UGBs: Lincoln City in Context

.pux-right[
<img src="Lincoln_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-24-1.png" width="800px" height="400px" />
]

.pux-left[
<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Metric </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 1980 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2000 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2020 </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Pop 65+ </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 24.34% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 19.31% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 29.01% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Units </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 4,016 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 4,990 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 7,204 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Occupancy </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 63.40% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 67.56% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 63.77% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons Per Household </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.11 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.18 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.11 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Household Income </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $44,156 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $46,621 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $67,372 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Employment Rate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 90.48% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 88.17% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 96.06% </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]
---
# Lincoln City Beyond the Census

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---

# Lincoln County: Lincoln City UGB Boundaries

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---

# Lincoln City UGB Pop Forecast

---

# Lincoln City UGB Pop Forecast

---

# Lincoln UGBs: Newport in Context

.pux-right[
<img src="Lincoln_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-30-1.png" width="800px" height="400px" />
]

.pux-left[
<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Metric </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 1980 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2000 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2020 </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Pop 65+ </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 14.20% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 17.19% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 28.83% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Units </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 3,862 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 5,034 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 5,697 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Occupancy </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 83.84% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 81.68% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 80.74% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons Per Household </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.28 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.25 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.18 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Household Income </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $59,199 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $59,765 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $71,475 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Employment Rate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 91.82% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 90.98% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 93.19% </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]
---
# Newport Beyond the Census

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---

# Lincoln County: Newport UGB Boundaries

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---

# Newport UGB Pop Forecast

---

# Newport UGB Pop Forecast

---

# Lincoln UGBs: Siletz in Context

.pux-right[
<img src="Lincoln_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-36-1.png" width="800px" height="400px" />
]

.pux-left[
<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Metric </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 1980 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2000 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2020 </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Pop 65+ </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 10.39% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 12.09% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 18.21% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Units </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 372 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 468 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 500 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Occupancy </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 94.09% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 89.74% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 92.40% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons Per Household </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.86 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.70 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.66 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Household Income </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $60,987 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $71,992 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $104,650 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Employment Rate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 87.62% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 94.52% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 94.73% </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]
---
# Siletz Beyond the Census

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---

# Lincoln County: Siletz UGB Boundaries

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---

# Siletz UGB Pop Forecast

---

# Siletz UGB Pop Forecast

---

# Lincoln UGBs: Toledo in Context

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<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Metric </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 1980 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2000 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2020 </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Pop 65+ </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 9.62% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 10.63% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 15.17% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Units </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 1,259 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 1,474 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 1,491 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Occupancy </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 91.90% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 89.01% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 91.82% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons Per Household </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.71 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.65 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.57 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Household Income </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $73,184 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $64,448 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $57,762 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Employment Rate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 96.24% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 92.16% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 85.20% </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]
---
# Toledo Beyond the Census

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---

# Lincoln County: Toledo UGB Boundaries

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---

# Toledo UGB Pop Forecast

---

# Toledo UGB Pop Forecast

---

# Lincoln UGBs: Waldport in Context

.pux-right[
<img src="Lincoln_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-48-1.png" width="800px" height="400px" />
]

.pux-left[
<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Metric </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 1980 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2000 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2020 </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Pop 65+ </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 21.11% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 23.46% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 32.24% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Units </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 682 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 1,099 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 1,324 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Occupancy </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 81.09% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 82.71% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 84.21% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons Per Household </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.30 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.24 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.02 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Household Income </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $47,572 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $62,203 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $61,716 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Employment Rate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 89.29% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 85.71% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 82.67% </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]
---
# Waldport Beyond the Census

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---

# Lincoln County: Waldport UGB Boundaries

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---

# Waldport UGB Pop Forecast

---

# Waldport UGB Pop Forecast

---

# Lincoln UGBs: Yachats in Context

.pux-right[
<img src="Lincoln_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-54-1.png" width="800px" height="400px" />
]

.pux-left[
<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Metric </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 1980 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2000 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2020 </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Pop 65+ </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 35.89% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 32.09% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 37.42% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Units </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 423 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 619 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 961 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Occupancy </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 60.28% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 53.80% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 58.17% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons Per Household </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 1.89 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 1.85 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 1.78 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Household Income </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $44,035 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $60,348 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $68,743 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Employment Rate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 87.50% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 94.66% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 88.54% </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]
---
# Yachats Beyond the Census

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---

# Lincoln County: Yachats UGB Boundaries

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# Yachats UGB Pop Forecast

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# Yachats UGB Pop Forecast

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class: center

# Comments or Questions?

## Contact PSUPRC
Email: [askprc@pdx.edu](mailto:askprc@pdx.edu)  
Telephone: 503-725-3922

## Preliminary Population Projections
https://www.pdx.edu/population-research/population-forecasts