Oregon Population Forecast Program

.title[
# Oregon Population Forecast Program
]
.subtitle[
## Proposal Forecasts for Counties & UGBs
]
.author[
### Polk County
]
.institute[
### Portland State University Population Research Center
]
.date[
### February 2025
]

---

# Comments or Questions?

## Contact PSUPRC
Email: [askprc@pdx.edu](mailto:askprc@pdx.edu)  
Telephone: 503-725-3922

## Preliminary Population Projections
https://www.pdx.edu/population-research/population-forecasts

---

# PSUPRC Project Team

**Huda Alkitkat, PhD.**  
*Population Estimates Manager*

**Seth Dowden**  
*Research Assistant*

**Neal Marquez, PhD.**  
*Population Forecast Manager*

**Gilbert Montcho, PhD.**  
*Demographic & Labor Econ Analyst*

**Scott Nordstrom, PhD.**  
*Post-Doctoral Researcher*
]

**Aja Sutton, PhD.**  
*Post-Doctoral Researcher*

**David Swanson, PhD.**  
*Research Associate*

**Suniva Thangaraj**  
*Program Manager*

**Joshua Wilde, PhD.**  
*Research Scientist*
]

---

# Polk County Outline

- Introduction
- Updates
- County Overview
- UGB Forecasts

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---

# PSUPRC OPFP Population Forecasts

.puz-left[
- For the purposes of land use planning PSUPRC generates population forecasts
- For counties, urban growth boundaries (UGBs), and areas outside UGBs
- These forecasts must
    - Be updated at least every four years
    - Cover a 50 year forecast horizon
    - Include most up to date data
    - Allow for public input/objections
    - Methods & results publicly available

]

.puz-right[
![Oregon Seal](https://sos.oregon.gov/PublishingImages/Oregon-State-Seal-Navy-Gold.png)
]

---
# Oregon Population Forecast Program Cycle

![Program Cycle](program_cycle.png)

---
# Methods Review: Cohort Component Method

.pux-left[
- For Counties
- Births = Females 15-50 * Birth Rate
  - Both number of and rate of births in OR decreasing
- Deaths = All Population * Death Rate
  - While number of deaths are increasing rate of deaths decreasing
- Migration = Past migration events
  - Average of past migration is most likely scenario moving forward

]

---
# Methods Review: Housing Unit Method

.pull-left[
- For UGBs
- `$P_t = P_{t-1} + \Delta HU*PPH*OCC$`
- `$PPH$`: Persons per household
  - Estimated from most recent census data
- `$OCC$`: Occupancy Rate
  - Estimated from most recent census data
- `$\Delta HU$`: annual change in housing units
  - Modeled based on past housing unit growth trends

]

---
# After this meeting

- Email for further follow up  
- March 15, 2025 forecast discussion period ends
- Chance to formally appeal until May 5, 2025
  - Will review appeals in the following week
- No further changes will be made after May 15, 2025
- Reports and data tables will be available June 15, 2025

---
class: center, middle, inverse

# Updates

---
# Survey and Preliminary Meeting Feedback

- Received housing and general survey responses from over 20 organizations
- Updated GIS UGB boundary lines 
- Account for large public works alter housing development trajectories
- Incorporate group quarter expansions
- Adjusted housing unit productions
- Housing build moratoriums
- General concerns
  - Restrictions on development  
  - Access to others responses
  
---
# Incoporation of 2024 Certified Estimates

![Estimates](./pop_est_page.png)

---
# Agreement from US Census Bureau Concerning Oregon's Growth

![Oregonion](./oregonian.png)

---

# Fertility Changes

![Oregonion](./birth_story.png)

---

# Life Expectancy Changes

![lex](./lex_recent.png)

# Housing Developments

![housing](./housing_news.png)

---
class: center, middle, inverse

# Polk County Forecast

---
# Polk County at a Glance

<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Statistic </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Polk </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Oregon </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Total Population </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 87,433 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 4,237,256 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Population Aged 0-17 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 22.21% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 20.20% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Population Aged 65+ </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 18.53% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 18.25% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Population non-White </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 20.97% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 23.41% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons per Household </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.66 (33,828 units) </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.48 (1,813,747 units) </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>

---
# Polk County Beyond the Census

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---

# Polk Employment Changes

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Information Sector Jobs: 65","Year: 2023 County: Polk Industry: Information Sector Jobs: 106"],"type":"bar","textposition":"none","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(0,189,92,1)","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"transparent"}},"name":"Information","legendgroup":"Information","showlegend":true,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"orientation":"v","width":[0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177],"base":[0,0,0,0,0,0,0],"x":[1993,1998,2003,2008,2013,2018,2023],"y":[959,2557,1106,1251,1411,1995,2354],"text":["Year: 1993 County: Polk Industry: Leisure and hospitality Sector Jobs: 959","Year: 1998 County: Polk Industry: Leisure and hospitality Sector Jobs: 2,557","Year: 2003 County: Polk Industry: Leisure and hospitality Sector Jobs: 1,106","Year: 2008 County: Polk Industry: Leisure and hospitality Sector Jobs: 1,251","Year: 2013 County: Polk Industry: Leisure and hospitality Sector Jobs: 1,411","Year: 2018 County: Polk Industry: Leisure and hospitality Sector Jobs: 1,995","Year: 2023 County: Polk Industry: Leisure and hospitality Sector Jobs: 2,354"],"type":"bar","textposition":"none","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(0,193,167,1)","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"transparent"}},"name":"Leisure and hospitality","legendgroup":"Leisure and hospitality","showlegend":true,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"orientation":"v","width":[0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177],"base":[0,0,0,0,0,0,0],"x":[1993.409090909091,1998.409090909091,2003.409090909091,2008.409090909091,2013.409090909091,2018.409090909091,2023.409090909091],"y":[2106,2703,2387,2685,1892,2272,1838],"text":["Year: 1993 County: Polk Industry: Manufacturing Sector Jobs: 2,106","Year: 1998 County: Polk Industry: Manufacturing Sector Jobs: 2,703","Year: 2003 County: Polk Industry: Manufacturing Sector Jobs: 2,387","Year: 2008 County: Polk Industry: Manufacturing Sector Jobs: 2,685","Year: 2013 County: Polk Industry: Manufacturing Sector Jobs: 1,892","Year: 2018 County: Polk Industry: Manufacturing Sector Jobs: 2,272","Year: 2023 County: Polk Industry: Manufacturing Sector Jobs: 1,838"],"type":"bar","textposition":"none","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(0,186,222,1)","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"transparent"}},"name":"Manufacturing","legendgroup":"Manufacturing","showlegend":true,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"orientation":"v","width":[0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177],"base":[0,0,0,0,0,0,0],"x":[1993.8181818181818,1998.8181818181818,2003.8181818181818,2008.8181818181818,2013.8181818181818,2018.8181818181818,2023.8181818181818],"y":[998,1189,1919,1770,1540,1751,1674],"text":["Year: 1993 County: Polk Industry: Natural resources and mining Sector Jobs: 998","Year: 1998 County: Polk Industry: Natural resources and mining Sector Jobs: 1,189","Year: 2003 County: Polk Industry: Natural resources and mining Sector Jobs: 1,919","Year: 2008 County: Polk Industry: Natural resources and mining Sector Jobs: 1,770","Year: 2013 County: Polk Industry: Natural resources and mining Sector Jobs: 1,540","Year: 2018 County: Polk Industry: Natural resources and mining Sector Jobs: 1,751","Year: 2023 County: Polk Industry: Natural resources and mining Sector Jobs: 1,674"],"type":"bar","textposition":"none","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(0,166,255,1)","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"transparent"}},"name":"Natural resources and mining","legendgroup":"Natural resources and mining","showlegend":true,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"orientation":"v","width":[0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177],"base":[0,0,0,0,0,0,0],"x":[1994.2272727272727,1999.2272727272727,2004.2272727272727,2009.2272727272727,2014.2272727272727,2019.2272727272727,2024.2272727272727],"y":[510,593,491,808,860,1232,1371],"text":["Year: 1993 County: Polk Industry: Professional and business services Sector Jobs: 510","Year: 1998 County: Polk Industry: Professional and business services Sector Jobs: 593","Year: 2003 County: Polk Industry: Professional and business services Sector Jobs: 491","Year: 2008 County: Polk Industry: Professional and business services Sector Jobs: 808","Year: 2013 County: Polk Industry: Professional and business services Sector Jobs: 860","Year: 2018 County: Polk Industry: Professional and business services Sector Jobs: 1,232","Year: 2023 County: Polk Industry: Professional and business services Sector Jobs: 1,371"],"type":"bar","textposition":"none","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(179,133,255,1)","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"transparent"}},"name":"Professional and business services","legendgroup":"Professional and business 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Sector Jobs: 2,467","Year: 2023 County: Polk Industry: Trade, transportation, and utilities Sector Jobs: 2,551"],"type":"bar","textposition":"none","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(239,103,235,1)","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"transparent"}},"name":"Trade, transportation, and utilities","legendgroup":"Trade, transportation, and utilities","showlegend":true,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"orientation":"v","width":[0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177],"base":[0,0,0,0,0,0,0],"x":[1995.0454545454545,2000.0454545454545,2005.0454545454545,2010.0454545454545,2015.0454545454545,2020.0454545454545,2025.0454545454545],"y":[305,435,499,548,771,937,729],"text":["Year: 1993 County: Polk Industry: Unclassified Sector Jobs: 305","Year: 1998 County: Polk Industry: Unclassified Sector Jobs: 435","Year: 2003 County: Polk Industry: Unclassified Sector Jobs: 499","Year: 2008 County: Polk Industry: Unclassified Sector Jobs: 548","Year: 2013 County: Polk Industry: Unclassified Sector Jobs: 771","Year: 2018 County: Polk Industry: Unclassified Sector Jobs: 937","Year: 2023 County: Polk Industry: Unclassified Sector Jobs: 729"],"type":"bar","textposition":"none","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(255,99,182,1)","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"transparent"}},"name":"Unclassified","legendgroup":"Unclassified","showlegend":true,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null}],"layout":{"margin":{"t":47.614777916147794,"r":9.2984640929846432,"b":47.422166874221681,"l":69.73848069738483},"plot_bgcolor":"rgba(255,255,255,1)","paper_bgcolor":"rgba(255,255,255,1)","font":{"color":"rgba(0,0,0,1)","family":"","size":18.596928185969286},"title":{"text":"Polk County Job 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---

# Polk Migration Flows

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---

# Polk Population

.pulll-left[
We project that Polk's population will continue to grow, albeit at a slower rate than what has been observed in the past.
]

.pulll-right[
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]

---

# Polk Compositional Changes

.pulll-left[
Historically, population growth has come from natural change and net migration. In the future it will be driven solely by net migration.
]

.pulll-right[
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---

# Polk Births

.pulll-left[
Birth numbers are low for Polk County, and will continue to decline in the future as fertilty rates decrease.
]

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]

---

# Polk Deaths

.pulll-right[
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947","Year: 2035-2039 Annual Deaths: 1,057","Year: 2040-2044 Annual Deaths: 1,147","Year: 2045-2049 Annual Deaths: 1,214","Year: 2050-2054 Annual Deaths: 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]

---

# Polk Life Expectancy & TFR

---

# Population Pyramids

.pulll-left[
Polk's population age structure will continue to be heavily influenced by the college age population. 
]

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2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 0-4 Population: 2,176","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 5-9 Population: 2,561","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 10-14 Population: 2,920","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 15-19 Population: 3,369","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 20-24 Population: 4,081","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 25-29 Population: 3,774","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 30-34 Population: 2,431","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 35-39 Population: 3,170","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 40-44 Population: 3,231","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 45-49 Population: 3,109","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 50-54 Population: 2,812","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 55-59 Population: 2,624","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 60-64 Population: 2,471","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 65-69 Population: 2,613","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 70-74 Population: 2,758","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 75-79 Population: 2,355","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 80-84 Population: 1,766","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 85+ Population: 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2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 0-4 Population: 2,401","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 5-9 Population: 2,779","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 10-14 Population: 3,106","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 15-19 Population: 3,576","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 20-24 Population: 4,258","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 25-29 Population: 4,243","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 30-34 Population: 3,718","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 35-39 Population: 3,996","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 40-44 Population: 4,338","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 45-49 Population: 4,256","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 50-54 Population: 3,517","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 55-59 Population: 4,004","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 60-64 Population: 3,811","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 65-69 Population: 3,529","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 70-74 Population: 3,096","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 75-79 Population: 2,643","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 80-84 Population: 2,127","Year: 2050 Type: Forecast Sex: Female Age: 85+ Population: 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1990 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 0-4 Population: 1,823","Year: 1990 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 5-9 Population: 2,028","Year: 1990 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 10-14 Population: 2,036","Year: 1990 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 15-19 Population: 1,928","Year: 1990 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 20-24 Population: 1,865","Year: 1990 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 25-29 Population: 1,483","Year: 1990 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 30-34 Population: 1,694","Year: 1990 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 35-39 Population: 1,961","Year: 1990 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 40-44 Population: 1,864","Year: 1990 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 45-49 Population: 1,346","Year: 1990 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 50-54 Population: 1,071","Year: 1990 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 55-59 Population: 981","Year: 1990 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 60-64 Population: 964","Year: 1990 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 65-69 Population: 970","Year: 1990 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 70-74 Population: 857","Year: 1990 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 75-79 Population: 613","Year: 1990 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 80-84 Population: 379","Year: 1990 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 85+ Population: 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2020 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 0-4 Population: 2,378","Year: 2020 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 5-9 Population: 2,720","Year: 2020 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 10-14 Population: 3,042","Year: 2020 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 15-19 Population: 3,203","Year: 2020 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 20-24 Population: 3,830","Year: 2020 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 25-29 Population: 2,897","Year: 2020 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 30-34 Population: 2,598","Year: 2020 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 35-39 Population: 2,773","Year: 2020 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 40-44 Population: 2,604","Year: 2020 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 45-49 Population: 2,439","Year: 2020 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 50-54 Population: 2,388","Year: 2020 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 55-59 Population: 2,457","Year: 2020 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 60-64 Population: 2,468","Year: 2020 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 65-69 Population: 2,328","Year: 2020 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 70-74 Population: 2,133","Year: 2020 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 75-79 Population: 1,423","Year: 2020 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 80-84 Population: 828","Year: 2020 Type: Estimate Sex: Male Age: 85+ Population: 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2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Male Age: 0-4 Population: 2,277","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Male Age: 5-9 Population: 2,630","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Male Age: 10-14 Population: 3,011","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Male Age: 15-19 Population: 3,339","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Male Age: 20-24 Population: 3,802","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Male Age: 25-29 Population: 3,705","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Male Age: 30-34 Population: 2,580","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Male Age: 35-39 Population: 3,089","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Male Age: 40-44 Population: 3,179","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Male Age: 45-49 Population: 3,104","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Male Age: 50-54 Population: 2,829","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Male Age: 55-59 Population: 2,669","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Male Age: 60-64 Population: 2,424","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Male Age: 65-69 Population: 2,401","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Male Age: 70-74 Population: 2,273","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Male Age: 75-79 Population: 1,926","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Male Age: 80-84 Population: 1,365","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Male Age: 85+ Population: 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---

# Polk Race and Ethnicity

.pulll-left[
Polk's non-White population will continue to grow more quickly than the White population.
]

.pulll-right[
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---

# Polk UGB Population Changes

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32,252"],"type":"scatter","mode":"markers","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(248,118,109,1)","opacity":1,"size":5.6692913385826778,"symbol":"circle","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"rgba(248,118,109,1)"}},"hoveron":"points","name":"Dallas","legendgroup":"Dallas","showlegend":false,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"x":[1990,2000,2010,2020,2030,2040,2050,2060,2070],"y":[804.09385048787317,944.69807018351241,947.24266059316881,1050,1210.7622034909209,1311.150107879816,1408.2738533251538,1510.2839021774732,1618.2086191949436],"text":["Type: Estimate UGB: Falls City Year: 1990 Population: 804","Type: Estimate UGB: Falls City Year: 2000 Population: 945","Type: Estimate UGB: Falls City Year: 2010 Population: 947","Type: Estimate UGB: Falls City Year: 2020 Population: 1,050","Type: Forecast UGB: Falls City Year: 2030 Population: 1,211","Type: Forecast UGB: Falls City Year: 2040 Population: 1,311","Type: Forecast UGB: Falls City Year: 2050 Population: 1,408","Type: Forecast UGB: Falls City Year: 2060 Population: 1,510","Type: Forecast UGB: Falls City Year: 2070 Population: 1,618"],"type":"scatter","mode":"markers","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(196,154,0,1)","opacity":1,"size":5.6692913385826778,"symbol":"circle","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"rgba(196,154,0,1)"}},"hoveron":"points","name":"Falls City","legendgroup":"Falls City","showlegend":false,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"x":[1990,2000,2010,2020,2030,2040,2050,2060,2070],"y":[4525.0055906307389,6129.7030411426458,8701.4193244188518,9980,11144.282639792107,12555.83049532716,13930.172412961418,15307.832751038986,16663.942168778329],"text":["Type: Estimate UGB: Independence Year: 1990 Population: 4,525","Type: Estimate UGB: Independence Year: 2000 Population: 6,130","Type: Estimate UGB: Independence Year: 2010 Population: 8,701","Type: Estimate UGB: Independence Year: 2020 Population: 9,980","Type: Forecast UGB: Independence Year: 2030 Population: 11,144","Type: Forecast UGB: Independence Year: 2040 Population: 12,556","Type: Forecast UGB: Independence Year: 2050 Population: 13,930","Type: Forecast UGB: Independence Year: 2060 Population: 15,308","Type: Forecast UGB: Independence Year: 2070 Population: 16,664"],"type":"scatter","mode":"markers","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(83,180,0,1)","opacity":1,"size":5.6692913385826778,"symbol":"circle","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"rgba(83,180,0,1)"}},"hoveron":"points","name":"Independence","legendgroup":"Independence","showlegend":false,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"x":[1990,2000,2010,2020,2030,2040,2050,2060,2070],"y":[6399.8777847423471,7700.2999597153721,9580.6760522581844,11262,12996.347149214234,15117.799128167111,17135.284064355532,19026.380916884162,20704.398261403425],"text":["Type: Estimate UGB: Monmouth Year: 1990 Population: 6,400","Type: Estimate UGB: Monmouth Year: 2000 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20,704"],"type":"scatter","mode":"markers","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(0,192,148,1)","opacity":1,"size":5.6692913385826778,"symbol":"circle","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"rgba(0,192,148,1)"}},"hoveron":"points","name":"Monmouth","legendgroup":"Monmouth","showlegend":false,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"x":[1990,2000,2010,2020,2030,2040,2050,2060,2070],"y":[14618.032565716763,19457.046206909163,26125.959867060003,31343,34688.244147603153,40123.074742723657,45451.301611646828,50697.05993994532,55683.695330371054],"text":["Type: Estimate UGB: Salem Year: 1990 Population: 14,618","Type: Estimate UGB: Salem Year: 2000 Population: 19,457","Type: Estimate UGB: Salem Year: 2010 Population: 26,126","Type: Estimate UGB: Salem Year: 2020 Population: 31,343","Type: Forecast UGB: Salem Year: 2030 Population: 34,688","Type: Forecast UGB: Salem Year: 2040 Population: 40,123","Type: Forecast UGB: Salem Year: 2050 Population: 45,451","Type: 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---
class: center, middle, inverse

# Polk UGB Forecasts

---

# Polk UGBs: Dallas in Context

.pux-right[
<img src="Polk_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-18-1.png" width="800px" height="400px" />
]

.pux-left[
<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Metric </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 1980 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2000 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2020 </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Pop 65+ </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 15.53% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 17.51% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 23.26% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Units </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 3,322 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 4,912 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 6,890 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Occupancy </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 94.97% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 95.11% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 96.49% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons Per Household </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.60 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.57 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.48 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Household Income </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $60,706 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $67,183 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $84,430 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Employment Rate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 88.39% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 92.79% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 94.85% </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]

---
# Dallas Beyond the Census

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---
# Dallas Beyond the Census

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# Polk County: Dallas UGB Boundaries

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---

# Dallas UGB Pop Forecast

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# Dallas UGB Pop Forecast

---

# Polk UGBs: Falls City in Context

.pux-right[
<img src="Polk_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-25-1.png" width="800px" height="400px" />
]

.pux-left[
<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Metric </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 1980 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2000 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2020 </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Pop 65+ </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 14.18% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 14.49% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 16.18% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Units </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 311 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 373 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 416 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Occupancy </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 90.68% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 90.62% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 94.23% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons Per Household </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.85 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.86 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.68 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Household Income </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $45,944 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $60,634 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $48,677 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Employment Rate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 77.15% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 88.34% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 85.97% </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]

---
# Falls City Beyond the Census

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---
# Falls City Beyond the Census

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---

# Polk County: Falls City UGB Boundaries

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---

# Falls City UGB Pop Forecast

---

# Falls City UGB Pop Forecast

---

# Polk UGBs: Independence in Context

.pux-right[
<img src="Polk_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-32-1.png" width="800px" height="400px" />
]

.pux-left[
<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Metric </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 1980 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2000 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2020 </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Pop 65+ </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 10.74% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 9.03% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 9.73% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Units </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 1,520 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2,131 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 3,466 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Occupancy </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 92.70% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 93.57% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 96.22% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons Per Household </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.80 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.98 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.93 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Household Income </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $53,161 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $68,720 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $91,173 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Employment Rate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 85.64% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 90.35% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 95.60% </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]

---

# Independence Beyond the Census

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---

# Independence Beyond the Census

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---

# Polk County: Independence UGB Boundaries

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---

# Independence UGB Pop Forecast

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# Independence UGB Pop Forecast

---

# Polk UGBs: Monmouth in Context

.pux-right[
<img src="Polk_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-39-1.png" width="800px" height="400px" />
]

.pux-left[
<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Metric </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 1980 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2000 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2020 </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Pop 65+ </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 5.85% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 8.91% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 10.25% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Units </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2,156 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2,934 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 3,932 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Occupancy </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 93.92% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 93.97% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 92.70% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons Per Household </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.45 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.50 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.67 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Household Income </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $41,892 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $60,251 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $76,162 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Employment Rate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 92.91% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 89.65% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 95.12% </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]

---

# Monmouth Beyond the Census

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---

# Monmouth Beyond the Census

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---

# Polk County: Monmouth UGB Boundaries

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---

# Monmouth UGB Pop Forecast

---

# Monmouth UGB Pop Forecast

---

# Polk UGBs: Salem in Context

.pux-right[
<img src="Polk_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-46-1.png" width="800px" height="400px" />
]

.pux-left[
<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Metric </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 1980 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2000 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2020 </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Pop 65+ </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 13.24% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 12.44% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 15.35% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Units </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 37,125 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 53,817 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 67,411 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Occupancy </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 92.08% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 94.16% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 95.37% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons Per Household </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.39 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.53 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.60 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Household Income </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $58,840 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $72,626 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $83,939 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Employment Rate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 91.23% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 91.70% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 93.92% </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]

---

# Salem Beyond the Census

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---

# Salem Beyond the Census

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---

# Polk County: Salem UGB Boundaries

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---

# Salem UGB Pop Forecast

---

# Salem UGB Pop Forecast

---

# Polk UGBs: Willamina in Context

.pux-right[
<img src="Polk_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-53-1.png" width="800px" height="400px" />
]

.pux-left[
<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Metric </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 1980 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2000 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2020 </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Pop 65+ </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 12.58% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 10.36% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 13.76% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Units </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 653 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 715 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 852 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Occupancy </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 93.72% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 93.15% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 94.72% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons Per Household </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.86 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.77 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.75 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Household Income </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $53,836 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $60,382 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $67,497 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Employment Rate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 77.45% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 95.40% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 93.58% </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]

---

# Willamina Beyond the Census

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---

# Willamina Beyond the Census

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---

# Polk County: Willamina UGB Boundaries

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---

# Willamina UGB Pop Forecast

---

# Willamina UGB Pop Forecast

---
class: center

# Comments or Questions?

## Contact PSUPRC
Email: [askprc@pdx.edu](mailto:askprc@pdx.edu)  
Telephone: 503-725-3922

## Preliminary Population Projections
https://www.pdx.edu/population-research/population-forecasts